Editor’s Note: Before using the model, we strongly suggest everyone read Josh’s article introducing the concept here. We also recommend you listen to his interview with Adam Levitan in Episode 4 of the ETR podcast.
The Air Yards Buy-Low Model is back! It was touch and go and we’re a little late, but we’re pumped to bring you another year of underperforming pass catchers that have sneaky upside. The Buy-Low model uses target share and air yards to estimate a player’s expected production in the passing game, then highlights the players that underperformed relative to expectation. The key insight behind the model is that opportunity is sticky and production (in the form of catches and touchdowns) is not. You want to buy the signal and fade the noise, and the model helps us do just that. The out of sample r-squared for the model after two weeks of action is a very strong 0.59.
Cooper Kupp and Tyler Lockett are the toasts of the town through two weeks — and deservedly so — but chasing past results at WR is not a sharp strategy in DFS or season-long. Instead you want to focus on players who are more likely than others to rebound, and the model has identified a list of 18 receivers (TEs and RBs are included when their passing-game opportunity warrants) that deserve consideration in your DFS tournament lineups for Week 3, or a stash on your bench in season-long.
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