Macro vs. Micro: Week 1

And… away we go!  After a long summer of analyzing, predicting, ranking, taking futures, waiting, drafting, and loitering around in best ball lobbies, the NFL is finally back!  More importantly (much more importantly, actually), the great game of DFS is back. I mean, imagine watching an NFL game without having good action on it, right?

If you are reading this article, then I’m guessing you aren’t a laundry bro, and that having good, +EV action on this upcoming NFL main slate is the reason you are here. On that note, I should probably take a moment and explain what this article is and how it will function week to week, given that this is one of the new pieces of content we added at ETR this season (shout-out to us).

First, this article will focus only on FanDuel tournaments each week. As you likely know by now (and hopefully it’s another reason that you are reading this), we have significantly increased our FanDuel coverage this season. This weekly main-slate article is a big part of that, and I hope you will find it valuable week to week.

Second, this article is aimed at FanDuel tournaments as a whole for the main slate, and it’s not necessarily focused on large field or small field in a particular week. I’m sure there will be times that both small field and large field are referenced, but since we break our FD ownership projections down into small and large field already, this article will take a macro view of FD ownership in many cases. I only point this out because the previous article that I wrote on FanDuel game selection was more focused on small field, whereas this weekly article will be more on FanDuel tournament fields of all sizes.

Finally, this article may take on various topics week to week. Some weeks, it may be more slate-specific from a micro level, and other weeks it may zoom out a bit for a broader view of the slate (or a broader important topic relating to the slate) from a macro level. At least for Week 1, though, and possibly for future weeks as well, I’m going to do both.

Macro: Week 1…Best Ball?????????

At the start of this article, I mentioned “loitering around the best ball lobbies” all summer. Well, that’s what many of us did, right? What else was there to do (other than play tons of golf)?

While most of us were rounding out our best ball bags, not much has happened to change the opinions we held in the summer as we roll into Week 1.

Read that last line again. Like, actually. Then, stop and reflect on it for a moment. Sure, there have been a few key injuries heading into Week 1 (pour one out for Brock Bowers). But if you stop and think about it, we feel the same way about most players heading into Week 1 as we did toward the end of the best ball drafting season.

Don’t believe me? You don’t have to take my word for it. Look at projections. Take a look at ownership. Get into the optimizer and build some lineups. The same players that many best ball bros loved throughout the summer are either showing up in highly projected lineups and/or are highly owned for Week 1.