Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beaten at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
IMPORTANT: The lines for the bets you see below will almost certainly be gone. In order to get the lines as we release them, you must be subscribed to our Props Package and be connected to our subscriber-only Telegram channel.
Levitan’s Published Player Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Record: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL In-Season Record: 55-34, +$1,907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Record: 111-82, +$1,817
2021 NFL In-Season Record: 216-118: +$8,572
2021-22 NBA In-Season Record: 751-495, +$20,348
2022 NFL In-Season Record: 304-217, +$6,068 (through Divisional round)
2022 NBA In-Season Record: 405-276, +$9,520 (through January 22)
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop.
1. Jerick McKinnon rushing yards
Line: 24.5 yards
Mean Projection: 33.7 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: January 25, 9:58am ET
Notes: McKinnon had just one fewer carry than Isiah Pacheco last week and the Chiefs could run more with Patrick Mahomes gimpy.
2. Patrick Mahomes passing yards
Line: 270.5 yards
Mean Projection: 294.0 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: January 25, 10:20am ET
Notes: Mahomes’ ankle injury does not seem as bad as initially believed.
3. Miles Sanders receiving yards
Line: 6.5 yards
Mean Projection: 7.2 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: January 26, 11:28am ET
Notes: Sanders cedes passing downs to Kenneth Gainwell and the Eagles rarely target their RBs in the passing game.
4. Christian McCaffrey rushing yards
Line: 59.5 yards
Mean Projection: 57.4 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: January 26, 4:26pm ET
Notes: McCaffrey was clearly affected by his calf injury last week and now has two straight DNPs.
5. Jerick McKinnon carries
Line: 6.5 carries
Mean Projection: 8.6 carries
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-160)
Date: January 28, 9:05am ET
Notes: McKinnon set season-highs in snap rate and carries last week.
6. Deebo Samuel rushing yards
Line: 22.5 yards
Mean Projection: 34.3 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-110)
Date: January 29, 1:24pm ET
Notes: Samuel may be the de facto RB2 this week with Elijah Mitchell sidelined.
