Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beaten at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
IMPORTANT: The lines for the bets you see below will almost certainly be gone. In order to get the lines as we release them, you must be subscribed to our Props Package and be connected to our subscriber-only Telegram channel.
Levitan’s Published Player Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Record: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL In-Season Record: 55-34, +$1,907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Record: 111-82, +$1,817
2021 NFL In-Season Record: 216-118: +$8,572
2021-22 NBA In-Season Record: 751-495, +$20,348
2022 NFL In-Season Record: 206-155, +$3,207 (through Week 12)
2022 NBA In-Season Record: 204-135, +$5,461 (through November)
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop.
1. Isaiah McKenzie receiving yards
Line: 35.5 yards
Mean Projection: 29.9 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: November 30, 4:58pm ET
Notes: McKenzie saw a big spike in his target share and average depth of target in Week 12. We’re projecting that to return to his career-average levels in Week 13.
Line: 1.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 2.6 receptions
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-162)
Date: December 1, 10:42am ET
Notes: Singletary is running a route on over 60% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks this season. He has at least one catch in every game and has two or more in 7 of 11 games this season.
Line: 15.5 carries
Mean Projection: 18.4 carries
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-135)
Date: December 1, 8:06pm ET
Notes: Stevenson has very little competition for work with Damien Harris injured and J.J. Taylor inactive.
Line: 32.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 36.6
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-125)
Date: December 2, 9:46am ET
Notes: White had 21 first half pass attempts against Chicago outdoors, and now travels to a dome in what should be a more competitive game.
Line: 236.5 yards
Mean Projection: 222.7 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: December 2, 1:52pm ET
Notes: Pickett has not averaged more than 6.8 yards per attempt in any game, and we do not believe his volume gets high enough to hit this number.
Line: 41.5 yards
Mean Projection: 37.4 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-125)
Date: December 2, 2:15pm ET
Notes: Landry has only hit this line once all year.
Line: 8.5 carries
Mean Projection: 10.9 carries
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-140)
Date: December 2, 2:56pm ET
Notes: Allgeier has consistently been involved in this run game, and there is some contingent upside as well should anything happen to another RB.
Line: 245.5 yards
Mean Projection: 268 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: December 2, 3:12pm ET
Notes: We like this for similar reasons as the pass attempts, so doubling down in the dome with the market lagging behind.
Line: 240.5 yards
Mean Projection: 225.1 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: December 2, 8:40pm ET
Notes: Rodgers is playing injured and the Chicago defense should allow Green Bay to run.
Line: 94.5 yards
Mean Projection: 82.1 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: December 2, 8:47pm ET
Notes: The Texans are sizable underdogs in this matchup and Pierce may be hitting a bit of a rookie wall efficiency wise.
Line: 33.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 36.2 attempts
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: December 2, 8:58pm ET
Notes: A trip to Coors Field should have Lawrence passing early and often.
Line: 24.5 yards
Mean Projection: 17 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-125)
Date: December 3, 10:54am ET
Notes: Gus Edwards appears to have taken on the lead role in this backfield.
Line: 239.5 yards
Mean Projection: 265.2 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: December 3, 11:01am ET
Notes: Goff is 4-2 at home against this line.
Line: 20.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 23.2 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: December 3, 1:55pm ET
Notes: Fields is 7-4 against this line on the year, and has multiple paths to more attempts against rival Green Bay.
Line: 12.5 carries
Mean Projection: 14.9 carries
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-130)
Date: December 3, 2:35pm ET
Notes: The Packers should be able to run the ball against Chicago, and likely will want to with an injured QB.
Line: 3.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.1 catches
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-120)
Date: December 4, 10:10am ET
Notes: Carter has cleared this line just three times this year and is clearly fourth or fifth in the target pecking order.
Line: 290.5 yards
Mean Projection: 273.0 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: December 4, 10:16am ET
Notes: It’s a good matchup, but Herbert has a banged-up receiving corps and has topped this just once since Week 4.
Line: 210.5 yards
Mean Projection: 199.3 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: December 4, 10:21am ET
Notes: This game will be a grind and Heinicke has bested this twice in six starts.
Line: 4.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 4.1 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: December 4, 11:53am ET
Notes: Perine will be a workhorse with Joe Mixon out, but five catches is a big ask, especially with Ja’Marr Chase healthy.
Line: 40.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 38.6 attempts
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: December 5, 12:01pm ET
Notes: Tampa’s PROE has come down recently, and the Saints are a team the Bucs have historically struggled with.
