Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beat at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
IMPORTANT: The lines for the bets you see below will almost certainly be gone. In order to get the lines as we release them, you must be subscribed to our Props Package and be connected on our subscriber-only Telegram channel.
Levitan’s Published Player Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Record: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL In-Season Record: 55-34, +$1,907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Record: 111-82, +$1,817
2021 NFL In-Season Record: 216-118: +$8,572
2021-22 NBA In-Season Record: 751-495, +$20,348
2022 NFL In-Season Record: 19-17, -$33
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop.
1. Travis Kelce receptions
Line: 7.5 catches
Mean Projection: 6.6 catches
Book: BetMGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: September 13, 9:45am ET
Notes: An inflated number for anyone (not named Cooper Kupp), but especially for an aging tight end. The matchup Thursday against the Chargers is far more difficult than the one Kelce faced against the Cardinals in Week 1.
2. Tyler Lockett receptions
Line: 3.5 catches
Mean Projection: 4.6 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: September 14, 3:24pm ET
Notes: Lockett had just three catches in Week 1 but remains the uncontested WR2 in an admittedly low-volume Seahawks passing offense. Even with the concerns, four catches isn’t a big ask for someone of Lockett’s caliber.
3. Austin Ekeler rush attempts
Line: 13.5 carries
Mean Projection: 12.0 carries
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-125)
Date: September 14, 4:39pm ET
Notes: The Chargers used both Sony Michel and Josh Kelley extensively in Week 1. So we have a lot of outs to hitting here — Ekeler could again have his rushing role limited, or the Chiefs could get a big lead and damped the Chargers’ total rush attempts.
4. Patrick Mahomes completions
Line: 27.5 completions
Mean Projection: 25.9 completions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: September 14, 7:02pm ET
Notes: This prop is lined at a 68% completion rate based on the attempts. The under was 12-5 on this line in 2021.
5. Javonte Williams rushing yards
Line: 63.5 yards
Mean Projection: 57.4 yards
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-119)
Date: September 15, 10:20am ET
Notes: Melvin Gordon widely out-carried Williams in Week 1, meaning this line likely assumes greater volume and efficiency than what we are projecting.
6. Geno Smith rushing yards
Line: 14.5 yards
Mean Projection: 10.0 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-120)
Date: September 15, 12:40pm ET
Notes: Geno hasn’t been a very prolific runner since he was a consistent starter in 2014. He recorded six rush attempts in Week 1, but three of those were kneel downs. We simply think this line is too high.
7. Amari Cooper receptions
Line: 3.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 4.5
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+100)
Date: September 15, 2:04pm ET
Notes: He only had three catches on six targets in Week 1, but Cooper is still the WR1 in Cleveland and should be able to catch four balls even in a low-volume Browns pass offense.
8. Lamar Jackson pass attempts
Line: 28.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 32.8 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-110)
Date: September 15, 3:36pm ET
Notes: Baltimore had a +7.6% pass rate over expectation (PROE) in Week 1 despite playing the lowly Jets. We expect them to take a similar approach against Miami, who also showed a league-highest PROE (+12.7%) in Week 1.
9. Matt Ryan pass yards
Line: 242.5 yards
Mean Projection: 236.3 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: September 15, 4:15pm ET
Notes: The Colts had one of Week 1’s lowest PROE marks at -7.2% and two of their top three receivers did not practice on Thursday in Michael Pittman (quad) and Alec Pierce (concussion). We show an under with both of them projected active, so it’d only help our projection if one or both receivers are ruled out.
10. Justin Fields pass + rush yards
Line: 224.5 yards
Mean Projection: 245.2 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: September 15, 5:43pm ET
Notes: We’re expecting new Head Coach Luke Getsy to make life easier on Justin Fields this season. As 10-point road underdogs, the game script should lead to Fields throwing and scrambling as the Bears likely play catchup.
11. Cordarrelle Patterson rushing yards
Line: 56.5 yards
Mean Projection: 50.6 yards
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-117)
Date: September 16, 8:05am ET
Notes: Patterson is coming off of a workhorse appearance, but it was in a much better game script than will exist against the Rams, and Atlanta is likely to activate another RB to split carries.
12. Lamar Jackson carries
Line: 8.5 carries
Mean Projection: 9.2 carries
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+120)
Date: September 16, 8:11am ET
Notes: Lamar is 29-13 against this line the past three seasons. This pretty much comes down to if the narrative he will run less due to his contract situation is true.
13. David Montgomery rushing yards
Line: 50.5 yards
Mean Projection: 48.8 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: September 16, 9:15am ET
Notes: Montgomery has been splitting reps with Khalil Herbert, and the Bears are hefty underdogs against Green Bay.
14. David Njoku receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.0 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+130)
Date: September 16, 12:45pm ET
Notes: Njoku is the TE1 in Cleveland, but drew only one target in Week 1. His route participation was still strong just shy of 70%, and we’re expecting the Browns to feature him more offensively after giving him a 4-year, $54.8-million contract in the offseason.
15. Najee Harris rush attempts
Line: 13.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 17.8 attempts
Book: BetMGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+100)
Date: September 16, 3:40pm ET
Notes: Harris was questionable all week with a foot injury sustained at the tail end of their Week 1 matchup in Cincinnati, but stated all week he’d play and was removed from the injury report on Friday. He should see a typical workload on Sunday.
16. Cordarrelle Patterson receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.5 receptions
Book: BetMGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+130)
Date: September 16, 9:20pm ET
Notes: With ATL as big underdogs and 1-2 other RBs expected active in addition to Patterson, we’re expecting C-Patt to be more involved in the passing game this week.
17. Dameon Pierce rush + rec yards
Line: 57.5 rush + rec yards
Mean Projection: 54.3 rush + rec yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: September 16, 9:40pm ET
Notes: We expect Pierce to have a larger role this week in base situations, but this is still a high number for a 2-down back as a 10-point underdog.
18. Ezekiel Elliott rush yards
Line: 55.5 rush yards
Mean Projection: 52.5 rush yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: September 16, 10:05pm ET
Notes: Dak’s absence should lead to a reduction in efficiency for the offense and increase the likelihood of a negative game script.
19. Garrett Wilson receptions
Line: 3.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 2.6 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-145)
Date: September 16, 10:09pm ET
Notes: Wilson played under half the team’s snaps Week 1, and the NYJ offensive plays could be limited here. We’re willing to eat some bigger juice here given the projection gap on an under.
20. Trey Lance pass attempts
Line: 24.5 pass attempts
Mean Projection: 28.4 pass attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-130)
Date: September 16, 10:40pm ET
Notes: As run heavy as we expect San Francisco to be, this is a really low bar to clear for Lance. Pass attempts props was one of our better categories last season.
21. Jahan Dotson receptions
Line: 3.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.4 receptions
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+112)
Date: September 16, 10:46pm ET
Notes: Look for less total team pass attempts for Washington this week. Dotson will play a lot but is likely third or fourth in line for targets, making the plus money on the under appealing here.
22. Russell Wilson pass yards
Line: 239.5 pass yards
Mean Projection: 269.4 pass yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: September 16, 10:52pm ET
Notes: Game script is a concern here, but Russ’ efficiency can carry him over the line even on a limited number of attempts.
23. Antonio Gibson receiving yards
Line: 24.5 receiving yards
Mean Projection: 23.4 receiving yards
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-111)
Date: September 16, 10:57pm ET
Notes: Gibson was heavily involved in the passing game last week, but we’re still anticipating a higher target share for JD McKissic as well as reduced team pass volume for Washington this week. There’s not a huge projection edge here, but running back unders when it’s close are generally profitable.
24. Matt Ryan pass attempts
Line: 29.5 pass attempts
Mean Projection: 32.9 pass attempts
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-117)
Date: September 16, 11:09pm ET
Notes: We took an under on Ryan’s passing yardage earlier, but still felt the attempts line was light. With his receivers banged up, we could see a higher volume but lower efficiency game than usual for Ryan.
25. Derek Carr pass attempts
Line: 37.5 pass attempts
Mean Projection: 36.0 pass attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-130)
Date: September 16, 11:15pm ET
Notes: The Raiders had a high PROE Week 1 but were slow paced, leaving Carr just short of this line despite a negative game script throughout. Against Arizona, increased efficiency plus a higher likelihood of a positive game script could reduce Carr’s volume.
26. Jahan Dotson receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.4 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-130)
Date: September 17, 9:38am ET
Notes: We’re trying to make as many +EV bets as possible, and think this line drifted too far down after we took the under 3.5 catches at plus money.
27. Joe Mixon receptions
Line: 3.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.1 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-135)
Date: September 17, 11:32am ET
Notes: An inflated line for Mixon after he saw nine targets in Week 1. Samaje Perine continues to supplant him on most third downs and the Bengals are 7-point road favorites here, indicating they should be playing with a lead.
28. Jared Goff pass attempts
Line: 36.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 34.4 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-130)
Date: September 17, 7:44pm ET
Notes: Detroit had a negative PROE last week, and were trending that way late in 2021.
29. Aaron Rodgers rush yards
Line: 2.5 yards
Mean Projection: 8.3 yards
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: September 18, 6:37pm ET
Notes: Rodgers is 22-10 the last two years against this line to the over.
30. Zack Moss rush yards
Line: 18.5 yards
Mean Projection: 30.0 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: September 19, 5:50pm ET
Notes: Moss got six carries last week in a committee with Devin Singletary and should operate in the same 1B role in Week 2.
31. Derrick Henry rush yards
Line: 89.5 yards
Mean Projection: 85.8 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: September 19, 6:27pm ET
Notes: We’re expecting a negative game script for the Titans as 10-point road dogs. Add that up with a reinforced Bills D-Line and potential inefficiency for the Big Dog and it makes for a solid under bet on Henry.
