NY Guardians @ DC Defenders
Team Totals: Defenders 27.5, Guardians 20.5
Fresh off taking care of home-game business in its 23-3 rout of Tampa Bay, New York visits our nation’s capital in a battle of undefeateds. A negligible college and NFL rushing asset with 4.91 “speed,” game-managing Guardians QB Matt McGloin was fortunate to pad his stats with a Week 1 goal-line rushing TD on the back of a slow-paced attack wherein Kevin Gilbride’s team cruised to near-uncontested victory on a league-low 45 offensive plays. Gilbride is among the XFL’s most powerful figures as an offensive-minded coach without an offensive coordinator and will likely operate his team similarly in similar going-forward scenarios.
Gilbride further cemented his conservative style by going for one point after each of New York’s three Week 1 touchdowns despite two-point conversions being higher-probability and higher-output point-after plays. And the Guardians ran the league’s slowest Week 1 offense, exhausting a league-high 34.1 seconds between snaps. DC’s defense also delivered on its ballyhooed Opening Day billing, holding Seattle QBs to a combined 51.2% completion rate and 5.29 yards per attempt on 41 throws by Brandon Silvers and B.J. Daniels. McGloin looks like a shaky-floor, low-upside DFS play.
Albeit in a small sample, Seattle backs had little trouble running efficiently on DC in Week 1, combining for a 19/93/0 (4.89 YPC) rushing line without an individual run of 20-plus yards. Ex-Arizona Cardinal and Towson superstar Darius Victor paced New York’s Opening Day backfield with 12 touches, while 240-poud bruiser Tim Cook (5) was the only other Guardian back to touch the ball versus Tampa Bay. Austin Ekeler lookalike Justin Stockton didn’t play a lick. In a game script where New York is virtually certain to run more offensive plays, Victor offers DFS-tournament appeal. Cook and Stockton are Week 2 fades.
McGloin’s Week 1 target distribution: Joe Horn Jr. 8; Jake Powell 6; Mekale McKay and Colby Pearson 4; Victor 3; Cook and Teo Redding 1. … Horn finished fourth in the XFL in Week 1 target share (28%) yet emerged with 27 scoreless yards against Tampa Bay. Apparently ignoring usage and honing in on box-score results, DraftKings priced Horn at a near-minimum $3,400 for Week 2. Horn plays slot in New York’s offense, where Seattle slot WR Austin Proehl eviscerated (5/88/2) this same DC Defense last week. … Pearson (30) and McKay (29) each ran more Opening Day routes than Horn (27) and tied for top 15 in XFL target share (16%) on a team that didn’t need to throw much in its 23-3 win. Pearson (96%) and McKay (94%) also comfortably out-snapped Horn (78%) versus the Vipers, while DC allowed just one enemy wideout to clear 35 yards in its Week 1 win over Seattle. … As the Guardians run an 11-personnel base offense with three receivers and one tight end, Powell is the obvious tight end beneficiary after playing 90% of New York’s Week 1 offensive snaps and drawing a 20% target share, most among XFL tight ends and top ten among all pass catchers. He’s an enticing touchdown-or-bust Week 2 DFS play.
Betting lines kept moving in DC’s direction as Week 1’s opening game neared, and Pep Hamilton’s club more than paid dividends in its 31-19 manhandling of Seattle backed by field-flipping special teams and defense and a handful of explosive pass plays. Whether defense matters in this new spring league will be put to an exciting test when Defenders QB Cardale Jones faces the Guardians’ defense, which erased Marc Trestman’s hyped passing game in Week 1 and is flush with ex-NFL and/or NFL-caliber players in CB Jamar Summers (Lions, Dolphins, Steelers), ILB Ben Heeney (Texans, Saints, Raiders), S A.J. Hendy (Texans, Chargers, Dolphins), OLB Garret Dooley (Lions, Vikings), NT T.J. Barnes (Jaguars, Jets, Panthers, Chiefs, Bills), and NT Joey Mbu (Falcons, Colts, Packers, Redskins, Dolphins), and was paced by S Wesley Sutton (2 sacks), DE Bunmi Rotini (9 tackles, 1 sack), and LB D’Juan Hines (7 tackles, 2 PBUs) in Week 1.
2015 NCAA champion Cardale Jones will challenge New York’s stout defense after skewering Seattle’s for 9.0 yards per attempt, two touchdowns, and 28 rushing yards in DC’s Week 1 win. Plus sized (6’5/253), physical, and tough to sack, Jones faces a Guardians defense that allowed just three points to Trestman’s Vipers but did surrender a league-high 394 net yards and the XFL’s second most yards per play (5.5). Although Houston’s P.J. Walker will be the ongoing favorite, Jones is a contrarian pick to lead all XFL quarterbacks in Week 2 fantasy scoring. Jones is an aggressive deep-ball attacker, and coaching appears to be on Jones’ side after Hamilton dialed up a league-high 32% play-action rate in Week 1.
Even as Jhurell Pressley operated as DC’s Week 1 lead back on 14 touches, Pressley’s ineffectiveness (49 scoreless yards) combined with Donnel Pumphrey’s starting-lineup appearance created confusion as to the Defenders’ committee leader. Pumphrey went on to manage eight yards on five touches, while Pressley predictably asserted himself as D.C.’s foremost backfield option, but not by much with a 59% playing-time clip to Pumphrey’s 43%. I’m still a believer in Pressley as one of the XFL’s top backs and expect more Week 2 production at home versus New York. The Guardians were trampled for 150 rushing yards at 5.0 yards per carry by Tampa Bay in their opener, setting up Pressley to bounce back.
Jones’ Week 1 target distribution: Eli Rogers 6; Malachi Dupre 4; Pressley and Pumphrey 3; Rashad Ross and Simmie Cobbs 2; Khari Lee, Donnie Ernsberger, and Derrick Hayward 1 … Ex-Steelers slot WR Rogers drew a 30% Week 1 target share, second highest in the XFL behind only Nelson Spruce. Rogers’ ability to win early in pass routes gives him a competitive advantage in a pass-friendly league like this. Amid rumblings Rogers might not play, expect Ross to fill in at slot receiver in that scenario. … Dupre’s Week 1 target share (17%) registered top 15 in the league, but the onetime five-star high school recruit accumulated 14 yards on four targets and has shaky job security with projected Week 1 starter DeAndre Thompkins due back from injury. … The Defenders acquired Ross late and limited his Week 1 playing time (59%) but he still asserted himself as the XFL’s best receiver with 52 yards and a touchdown on two targets against Seattle. Ross figures to be closer to a full-time player this week, especially with Rogers’ availability in question. Should Rogers miss, I’d expect Ross to man slot receiver with Thompkins and Dupre outside and Cobbs mixing in sporadically. … Lee is DC’s lone playable tight end. He logged a 97% Week 1 playing-time rate but drew just one target, scoring from 39 yards out on a catch and run.
Score Prediction: Defenders 24, Guardians 17
Tampa Bay Vipers @ Seattle Dragons
Team Totals: Vipers 24.5, Dragons 21.5
Considering his successful CFL and NFL backgrounds, Vipers coach Marc Trestman’s offense was Week 1’s most disappointing in Tampa Bay’s 23-3 loss to New York. Tough luck had at least something to do with it; the Vipers entered the red zone four times and ran a league-high 12 red-zone plays against the Guardians, only to manage not a single touchdown drive. New York also fields perhaps the XFL’s most talented defense, while Trestman’s offense averaged the XFL’s second most yards per play (5.5) and now draws a much less-imposing opponent in Seattle, which got creamed by DC 31-19 in its opener.
The Vipers’ biggest Week 2 concern is quarterback with Aaron Murray (foot) out, forcing Trestman to turn to some combination of dual-threat Quinton Flowers and 6-foot-6 pocket passer Taylor Cornelius. Although playing-time uncertainty lowers their respective floors, Flowers’ ceiling is considerable as a candidate to spark Tampa Bay’s offense and score fantasy points in multiple ways. Even if Cornelius is announced as the Vipers’ starter, Flowers maintains a higher ceiling as an all-purpose weapon. Flowers scored an otherworldly 41 rushing TDs over his final three college seasons at UCF.
No Week 1 XFL offense totaled more yards than Trestman’s Vipers (394), and a big part of that came via versatile RB De’Veon Smith, an AAF alum who can catch passes at 5-foot-11, 223 and parlayed 17 touches into 87 yards in Tampa Bay’s loss to New York. Flowers and fellow plus-sized banger Jacques Patrick (6’3/235) of Florida State played Week 1 complementary roles, while Smith ran a robust 21 pass routes with four red-zone carries on a 65% playing-time clip. Week 2 opponent Seattle deserves credit for defending the run stoutly on Opening Day – little-known DC Clayton Lopez’s unit limited DC backs to a combined 16/36/0 (2.3 YPC) rushing line – but Smith’s probable role security in an offense likely to deliver improved box-score results renders Smith one of Week 2’s highest-floor DFS running back plays.
Vipers’ Week 1 target distribution: Daniel Williams 9; Jalen Tolliver 8; Nick Truesdell 6; Reece Horn 5; Patrick 3; Smith and Colin Thompson 1. … A prolific producer in the SWAC who spent the last three years bouncing between NFL practice squads, Williams (6’3/200) commanded the XFL’s third highest Week 1 target share (28%) and played 100% of Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps. Williams’ ceiling is obviously highest among Tampa Bay pass catchers but could be curbed if inferior passer Flowers takes over under center. … Whereas Williams is priced at $7,600 on DraftKings for Week 2, Tolliver is buried at $3,900 despite drawing one fewer target than Williams on a 97% snap rate. Tolliver stands out as an opportunity-based value play against Seattle. Only eight XFL players commanded higher target shares than Tolliver (22%) in Week 1. … Top-five XFL pick Truesdell’s opener was disastrous, lowlighted by one dropped pass and a fumble six. He still played 96% of Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps, finished top 12 among XFL players in target share (19%), and is an obvious bounce-back bet with a huge role in a passing game destined for positive scoring regression. For what it’s worth, Seattle’s defense got drilled by fellow TEs Khari Lee and Donnie Ernsberger for 62 yards and a touchdown on two targets in Week 1.
Jim Zorn’s Dragons turned in unsurprisingly milquetoast Week 1 results at DC, managing 19 points and a pathetic 4.8 yards per play. Zorn’s mundane offense extended to Seattle’s backfield, where snaps and touches were grossly distributed three ways between Kenneth Farrow (45%, 11), Trey Williams (34%, 7), and Ja’Quan Gardner (30%, 9). Williams (5) and Farrow (4) at least commanded targets – Gardner did not – but none of the three so much as reached 70 yards from scrimmage. As we’ve often discussed at Establish The Run, NFL backfields that deploy three members become fantasy blackholes, and that effect is even more pronounced at lower levels of play on bad teams with low-score projections like Seattle’s.
Although Brandon Silvers’ trio of Week 1 touchdown passes kept his fantasy outcome afloat, Silvers’ on-field play foreshadowed a signal caller likely to frustrate point chasers. Silvers was a turnover machine, quarterbacked an offense that finished bottom three in Opening Day yards per play (4.8), predictably did nothing on the ground (one rushing yard), and averaged an anemic 5.4 yards per pass attempt. Silvers also threw several additional passes into DC Defenders’ bodies that should have been picked off. As dual-threat backup B.J. Daniels should be breathing down Silvers’ neck, this looks like a DFS situation to fade.
(We are all systems go on Daniels should Silvers’ late-game foot injury keep him out of Week 2.)
Silvers’ Week 1 target distribution: Austin Proehl 10; Keenan Reynolds 7; Williams and Dontez Byrd 5; Farrow and Colin Jeter 4; Alonzo Moore 3; Evan Rodriguez 2; Ben Johnson 1. … Indeed the son of Ricky, Proehl scored the XFL’s first-ever touchdown on a 14-yard slot route before exclamation marking his debut with a 57-yard catch-and-run score as a late-in-the-down checkdown recipient who did nearly all of the work himself in the third quarter. Clearly a Silvers favorite, Proehl commanded the XFL’s sixth-highest Week 1 target share (26%) and projects as a high-percentage, high-floor interior weapon for Silvers and/or Daniels all year long. … Even as his Week 1 box-score results underwhelmed severely with two catches for five yards, Reynolds’ extreme offensive involvement places him in buy-back position after he ran a team-high 41 pass routes, ranked top 15 in the league in target share (18%), and played 94% of Seattle’s offensive snaps. Reynolds is a fade-recency-bias play against the Vipers. … As Seattle’s top vertical presence and clear-cut No. 3 wideout, Byrd offers boom-bust appeal at cheap DFS pricing.
Score Prediction: Vipers 23, Dragons 17
St. Louis BattleHawks @ Houston RoughNecks
Team Totals: RoughNecks 29, BattleHawks 21.5
Football returned to the Gateway City when St. Louis downed the visiting Renegades 15-9, a result Marvin Lewis disciple Jonathan Hayes’ BattleHawks will look to build upon in their first road test. Fresh off an efficient 20-of-27 (74%) performance for 209 yards and a score versus Dallas, St. Louis QB Jordan Ta’amu’s mobility made a difference with 77 yards on nine carries, maximizing his 4.77 speed after Ta’amu scored ten rushing TDs in 17 college starts. Entering Week 2, Ta’amu is the XFL’s third-leading rusher behind Matt Jones and De’Veon Smith, although Ta’amu was also Week 1’s most conservative area-based passer focusing on high-percentage checkdowns and dump offs rather than challenging downfield. As Hawks-Necks projects as Week 2’s highest-scoring affair, Ta’amu remains positioned for above-expectation box-score results based on his dual-threat skill set and scoring-friendly environment. In DFS-tournament stacks, Ta’amu looks best paired with WR/TE Marcus Lucas in lineups “brought back” with Houston’s Sammie Coates.
Firmly on team Establish The Run, the BattleHawks peeled off a league-high 42 rushing attempts in their win over Dallas. Augmented by a run-friendly setting – St. Louis won 15-9 and the game never got out of hand – Hayes’ Hawks’ displayed their offensive intentions in a run-favored script. LA Wildcats backs gutted out a combined 17/63/0 (3.71 YPC) rushing line against Houston, setting up St. Louis for a pass-funnel Week 2. The BattleHawks ripped off 71 Week 1 offensive plays – second most in the league – while the RoughNecks look capable of winning any shootout. Even after St. Louis drafted Christine Michael with its first-round skill-player pick, ex-Redskin Matt Jones operated as the BattleHawks’ Week 1 bellcow with Keith Ford in distant third-string position. Especially after Jones (knee) missed practice time this week, I think this backfield is a Week 2 DFS fade.
Ta’amu’s Week 1 target distribution: Marcus Lucas 6; L’Damian Washington and Alonzo Russell 5; De’Mornay Pierson-El 4; Michael, Brandon Reilly, Keith Mumphery, Wes Saxton, and Cole Hunt 1. … A sometimes-wideout, sometimes tight end in college and the pros, Lucas operated as St. Louis’ “big slot” receiver against Dallas, essentially mimicking the role Marques Colston once played for the New Orleans Saints. At 6-foot-4, 218 with 4.6 speed, Lucas is a definite stack candidate in Ta’amu DFS lineups. Lucas’ 27% Week 1 target share was fifth highest among DFS pass catchers. … Washington and Russell tied for 11th among XFL pass catchers in Week 1 target share (19%), running perimeter routes with Lucas and Pierson-El aligning inside. It’s a four-wide offense that doesn’t involve tight ends but appears to have defined four select wide receivers. … St. Louis’ lack of tight end involvement was reinforced when Hunt (leg) hit I.R. this week. Saxton figures to operate as the BattleHawks’ No. 1 tight end going forward.
In a league pursuing marketable stars, Temple grad and ex-Colts backup P.J. Walker made a compelling case in the RoughNecks’ come-from-behind Week 1 victory over LA, rallying Houston to a 37-17 win after June Jones’ club initially fell behind 14-6. Taylor was a natural in Jones’ run-and-shoot attack, torching LA for four touchdowns and supplementing his production with 26 yards on four scrambles. Walker was protected as well as any Week 1 XFL quarterback and consistently challenged deep, always keeping his eyes downfield. Jones operated with refreshing aggressiveness, going for two- rather than one-point tries on 4-of-5 point-after attempts and running offensive plays at the XFL’s third-fastest clip with just 27.9 seconds coming off the clock between snaps. No team averaged more yards per play than Houston (5.6) in Week 1. Even as St. Louis fields one of the XFL’s toughest defenses, the RoughNecks’ scheme, talent, and approach suggest they’ll continue to be one of this league’s most bankable teams.
Whereas Houston’s passing attack is built to be straightforward, Jones’ ground game is more nebulous without any forthright commitment to running the ball. Even after ostensible lead back De’Angelo Henderson (shoulder) left Week 1 early, James Butler took over as the RoughNecks’ main runner yet touched the ball just 11 times with Nick Holley (4) and Andre Williams (3) behind him. St. Louis’ Week 1 run defense was unimposing, yielding a combined rushing line of 12/58/0 (4.83 YPC) to Dallas backs. After logging a 71% Week 1 snap rate, Butler is Houston’s top actual running back play. Yet Holley offers sleeper appeal we’ll get to momentarily.
Walker’s Week 1 target distribution: Cam Phillips and Sammie Coates 9; Kahlil Lewis 6; Nick Holley and Ryheem Malone 5; Butler and Sam Mobley 2; Andre Williams 1; Blake Jackson 0. … Phillips was Houston’s No. 1 wideout against the Wildcats, leading the team in routes run (40), playing time (100%), and targets (9). Phillips’ 22% target share ranked eighth among XFL pass catchers in Week 1. In spite of his athletic limitations – he runs 4.8 at 6’0/199 – Phillips was extremely productive all four years at Virginia Tech and a persistent OTAs/training camp favorite of beat writers in Buffalo. He might be the XFL’s Keenan Allen. … Coates is the diametric opposite after managing 26 scoreless yards on nine Week 1 targets. Coates’ ceiling should remain sky high in a receiving-friendly environment but ball skills have never been his strength. Coates remains a compelling fade-recency DFS-tournament play in an offense that won’t stop feeding him. Coates’ 25% target share ranked seventh among XFL players in Week 1. … Lewis, Holley, and Malone file in as Houston’s Nos. 3-5 wideouts in an offense that concentrates on having at least four receivers on the field together and rarely deploys a traditional tight end. Playable at running back on DraftKings, Holley is a Week 2 sleeper after operating as a slot receiver for nearly all of Week 1 and running the third most pass routes on the RoughNecks. … Lewis is Houston’s final playable wideout after logging 66% of Week 1’s offensive snaps and turning his six targets into 5/45/1 receiving. The RoughNecks run four- and five-wideout sets without a single tight end on their 52-man roster.
Score Prediction: RoughNecks 28, BattleHawks 17
Dallas Renegades @ LA Wildcats
Team Totals: Renegades 26, Wildcats 22.5
Refreshingly after checkdown-machine Phillip Nelson failed to move Dallas’ Week 1 offense, Renegades starter Landry Jones (knee) appears ticketed for Week 2 return under Bob Stoops, Jones’ head coach for four years at Oklahoma. Bounced 15-9 at home by St. Louis in Week 1, Stoops’ Renegades hit the road to face a Wildcats team that was so soundly stomped by Houston that LA coach Winston Moss fired DC Pepper Johnson and released defensive captain LB Anthony Johnson exactly one day after the game. Jones’ regular season and NFL preseason resumes are checkered enough for skepticism coming off a multi-week MCL injury, but Dallas runs a quarterback-friendly offense set up for Jones to succeed and immediately encounters a Wildcats defense June Jones’ RoughNecks run and shoot just dismantled.
Whitewashed 37-17 in Week 1, the Wildcats’ defense looks like a pass-funnel unit after stymieing Houston backs for 12/24/1 (2.0 YPC) on the ground but hemorrhaging a 104 QB rating to P.J. Walker and rendering the former Colts third-stringer the XFL’s early MVP favorite. This positions Landry Jones to assert himself as one of the league’s best quarterbacks under aggressive Dallas OC Hal Mumme, whose up-tempo Week 1 offense utilized a league-low 26.4 seconds in between snaps.
On the ground, Stoops and Mumme deployed a fantasy-unfriendly four-man RBBC versus St. Louis. Pass-catching maven Lance Dunbar paced the team in touches (11) and targets (6) but was out-snapped by plodding Panthers backup Cameron Artis-Payne (6, 4) with Marquis Young (7, 4) and Austin Walter (3, 1) behind them. As a receiving specialist, Dunbar is the lone dart throw-worthy member of this group, albeit not by much. Pass-catching no-show Artis-Payne (23) ran more Week 1 routes than Dunbar (15) did.
Renegades’ Week 1 target distribution: Dunbar, Donald Parham, and Flynn Nagel 6; Young, Artis-Payne, Jerrod Heard, Sean Price, and Jeff Badet 4; Jazz Ferguson 3; Walter and Freddie Martino 1. … As not a single non-quarterback skill player for Dallas played more than 61% of the Renegades’ offensive snaps, this offense will be difficult to trust going forward, especially with musical chairs at QB. … 6-foot-9 TE Parham did assert himself as a primary weapon in last week’s loss to St. Louis, tying for the team lead in routes run (30) and targets with a 4/40/0 receiving result. Even with some touchdown dependency, Parham’s DraftKings price ($3,200) on one of the XFL’s pass-heaviest teams should place him among this week’s most popular DFS plays. … Dallas’ main slot receiver, Nagel is a low-aDOT target whose fantasy prospects could benefit immensely from Jones’ return. … Heard paced Dallas in Week 1 Air Yards (73) but emerged with ten yards on one catch and looks like a boom-bust Week 2 dart throw with a low floor on rotational snaps. … Six Renegades ran more Week 1 pass routes than Price. … Badet bombed Week 1 (3/6/0) but led Dallas wideouts in playing time (62%) and routes (30). Either way, the Renegades’ deep pass-catcher rotation is going to spoil individual consistency.
Arguably the XFL’s best quarterback, Josh Johnson appears likely to make his league debut after nursing a multi-week hamstring strain that kept him out of Week 1. The nature of Johnson’s injury is troubling considering his dual-threat style of play, but regardless he’s likely to upgrade on last week’s rotation of Chad Kanoff and Jalan McClendon, who combined to average 4.98 yards per attempt in LA’s 20-point loss to Houston. The Wildcats did peel off a league-high 74 offensive plays against the RoughNecks and were the XFL’s second fastest team on a per-snap basis, utilizing a league-low 27.5 seconds in between offensive downs. LA also went for two points after both of its touchdowns, mounting a 14-6 first-half lead it would later squander. Nevertheless, these were promising small-sample signs that Winston Moss’ coaching staff may be incorporating data into its decision making in an effort to find an edge.
The Wildcats involved three backs in their Week 1 loss but promisingly treated Elijah Hood as their clear lead runner via 12 carries on 71% of LA’s offensive snaps. Unfortunately, Hood had zero passing-game involvement – Larry Rose is the Wildcats’ receiving specialist – rendering Hood a touchdown-reliant DFS commodity and cementing LA’s backfield as a multi-member gang. Third in line for touches is onetime Green Bay Packers RB DuJuan Harris, although his availability appears doubtful due to a bum ankle. Hood is the best DFS bet in this backfield with Johnson upgrading LA’s offensive outlook as a unit.
LA’s Week 1 target distribution: Nelson Spruce 15; Jordan Smallwood 6; Saeed Blacknall and Brandon Barnes 4; Kermit Whitfield, Jalen Greene, and Adonis Jennings 3; Rose 2; Harris 1. … Predictably Week 1’s XFL target leader, Spruce’s outlook shouldn’t change much with Johnson’s under-center return, even if Spruce doesn’t continue to command an outrageous 15 targets per week. LA’s defense is in near-term disarray – forcing more onto the Wildcats’ offensive plate – while Spruce is the uncontested centerpiece of OC Norm Chow’s offense as a high-percentage slot dominator. … Blacknall’s (thigh) potential absence improves Smallwood and Jennings’ Week 2 outlooks in particular. Although Blacknall goose egged on his four Week 1 targets, his 43 routes run were second to only Spruce on the team, and Blacknall’s removal from the offense would free up quite a bit of opportunity. … Barnes was the only factor at tight end for LA against St. Louis, playing 65% of the Wildcats’ offensive snaps. He’s a touchdown-or-bust DFS punt.
Score Prediction: Wildcats 20, Renegades 19
