The Rundown: Week 1

 

Welcome to The Rundown: Week 1. Each week, we will be compiling some of our favorite and most actionable takes from the ETR team and organizing them on this page game by game. We’ll also provide some additional stats and notes to help make those crucial decisions when building and setting your lineups on Sunday mornings. Please note that all betting information is sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook. If you’re betting sides and totals, always be sure to line shop first and utilize ETR’s various sportsbook bonus offers.

 

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Panthers at Falcons, 1 p.m. EST

• Snaps and Pace: Pat Thorman called this game a slow-paced slog. Carolina positively crawled during Bryce Young’s two drives in their second preseason game, suffering a delay of game penalty and averaging a clock-nuking 4.7 play-clock seconds remaining at the snap. The rookie’s two drives in the final preseason game were not much faster, with no hint of no-huddle and only 6.2 play-clock seconds remaining, on average. While Atlanta will likely rank higher than 30th in situation-neutral pass rate and 28th in pace, they’re not about to turn into the Chip Kelly Eagles anytime soon. No team operated at a slower pace when favored by at least a field goal last season, and the Falcons are 3.5-point favorites on Sunday.
• Cheap WRs: Gary Hartman listed Adam Thielen ($4,600 DK) as a strong DraftKings-only play. Thielen signed a 3-year, $25 million contract this offseason, and his case is helped by the fact that D.J. Chark is looking unlikely to play with a hamstring injury. Thielen projects for 5.6 targets.

 

Silva’s Matchups Takes:

• “Miles Sanders figures to open the season as Carolina’s offensive focal point after the Panthers made him the NFL’s 10th-highest-paid running back in free agency…I like Sanders’ chances of flirting with 15 carries as a low-end RB2.”
• “Desmond Ridder completed 37 passes for first downs as a rookie; Drake London caught 17 of them (46%).”
• “While I anticipate Tyler Allgeier handling a larger workload than widely expected, Bijan Robinson immediately steps in as Atlanta’s most talented skill player and should push for 20 touches right away.”
• “Despite Kyle Pitts’ immense skill set — he won the MFin’ Mackey Award at Florida and topped 1,000 yards as an NFL rookie — Pitts can only be treated as a boom-bust TE1 in Atlanta’s run-dominant offense.”

 

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Bengals at Browns, 1 p.m. EST

• OL vs. DL: The Browns’ OL ranks third in Brandon Thorn’s Week 1 rankings, while the Bengals (OL 12th; DL 21st) are weaker on both sides of the ball.
• Cheap WRs: Gary Hartman listed Elijah Moore ($3,800 DK) as a strong DraftKings-only play. Moore projects for 5.1 targets and is one of our favorite discounted options in Week 1, especially in a game environment that has a close spread (Cleveland +2.5) and has the potential to go back and forth with rival Cincinnati.
• DFS Top Plays: The ETR team listed Joe Mixon ($6,800 DK, $7,500 FD) as a top RB play on both DraftKings (sixth) and FanDuel (third). Mixon is locked in as the clear top option in the Bengals’ backfield and is set up for a voluminous workload with no Samaje Perine to spell him this year.

 

Silva’s Matchups Takes:

• “I’m starting Joe Burrow where I drafted him, but I’m keeping box-score expectations slightly reserved.”
• “Joe Mixon leading the entire league in Week 1 touches would not surprise.”
• “Slot man/glue guy Tyler Boyd enters his age-28/29 campaign having finished below 850 yards in three straight years. Boyd is a possession-slot receiver with capped upside whenever Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are both healthy.”
• “Irv Smith Jr. and Drew Sample figure to share tight end snaps, Smith being the superior pass catcher and Sample the better blocker.”
• “In Week 1 DFS tournaments, I like stacking Deshaun Watson with David Njoku.”
• “Now 29 but showing no signs of slowdown, Amari Cooper last season finished top 15 in the league in yards per route run (2.30).”
• “Underrated Donovan Peoples-Jones projects to play over Moore in two-wideout sets. Still ascending at age 24, Peoples-Jones topped 800 yards in his third NFL season and has room for growth as an intriguing WR5/6 fantasy stash.”

 

 

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Jaguars at Colts, 1 p.m. EST

• Snaps and Pace: Pat Thorman called this game up in pace. The Jaguars profile as play-volume catalysts; their games already produced the sixth-most combined snaps last season before Jacksonville imported bonafide No.1 wideout Calvin Ridley. For Week 1, at least, we can overlook the Colts’ organizational dysfunction and target a divisional matchup with the potential for elevated pace and play volume. Former Eagles OC Shane Steichen wasted no time in allowing rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson to operate with tempo during their final preseason game.
• Cheap WRs: Alec Pierce ($3,800 DK, $5,200 FD) and Zay Jones ($4,500 DK) both made Gary Hartman’s “Others to Watch” list. Pierce is heavily discounted and his 4.9 target projection nearly reaches our five-target criteria. Last year’s Cheap WR poster boy, Jones is a bit too pricy on FanDuel ($5,600), and now has added target competition in Calvin Ridley, but the Jaguars’ passing offense should remain dynamic enough to support all of their pass catchers, and Jones projects for 5.5 targets.
• DFS Top Plays: The ETR team listed Anthony Richardson ($5,600 DK, $6,700 FD) as a top QB play on both DraftKings (second) and FanDuel (first). The range of outcomes is wide on the fourth overall pick, but Richardson’s price tag on DraftKings puts him in play in either cash games or GPPs in Week 1.

 

Silva’s Matchups Takes:

• “Now riffing with Calvin Ridley, Lawrence’s ceiling is raised in his second year under QB guru Doug Pederson.”
• “Tank Bigsby’s impact on Travis Etienne’s short-yardage/goal-line and receiving roles is to be determined. Etienne is a high-end RB2 play with RB1 upside. Bigsby remains an RB4/5 stash.”
• “Christian Kirk is a confident WR3 starter. … Zay Jones’ 2022 stat lines against Indianapolis were 3/23/0 and 5/42/0. Let’s aim higher.”
• “I would rather start Jacksonville’s D/ST than any Colts skill player in Week 1.”
• “Anthony Richardson profiles as a low-percentage, low-volume passer, zapping possession WR Michael Pittman.”

 

 

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Buccaneers at Vikings, 1 p.m. EST