Draft time is upon us. Your fantasy football draft strategy is obviously heavily dependent on what pick you have. In this article, we’ll dig into what we think is the optimal strategy if you have a middle pick in the first round. For this article, we will use FantasyPros half-PPR ADP, though we understand many home leagues will not play out like this, and we’ll try to talk through multiple ways your draft could play out.
ROUND 1 STRATEGY
If you pick in the middle of Round 1, Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson are likely off the board. Ja’Marr Chase and Puka Nacua may last until the fifth pick in some drafts, but we have them both as top-four picks. Chase has led the NFL in targets the last two years and is arguably the best real-life wideout in football. If Joe Burrow stays healthy, Chase’s upside is bananas (look at his 127/1,708/17 slash line in 2024). Nacua led the NFL with 0.37 targets per route run last year, narrowly below where he was in 2024 (0.38). He’s the NFL’s best per-route target earner, and he’s playing with the reigning MVP at quarterback. Both Chase and Nacua are strong picks if you can get them in the middle of Round 1.
Assuming they’re gone, we’re looking at Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Christian McCaffrey at 1.05 and 1.06 in leagues that are at least half-PPR formats. JSN had the highest target share in football in 2025 (33.5%) en route to an Offensive Player of the Year-winning season. He carries some risk considering he only has one top-flight season and lost OC Klint Kubiak, but it’s impossible to ignore the production he had last season. With McCaffrey, you know exactly what you’re getting: He was the RB1 in both total half-PPR points and points per game. He’s also 30 years old with an injury history coming off a 450-touch season. If he stays healthy, he has as good a chance as anyone to finish as the overall RB1, but he’s a significantly bigger health gamble than Gibbs and Bijan. Still, you’ve got to take swings to win your league, and McCaffrey’s ceiling is worth the risk with a top-six selection.
Jonathan Taylor is the other running back worth considering in this range. Taylor looked like an OPOY contender before Daniel Jones‘ Achilles tear effectively killed the Colts’ season. Taylor was averaging a ridiculous 5.7 yards per carry on 18.8 carries per game, and he had 15 rushing touchdowns in 12 games with Jones healthy last year. Taylor also posted a career-high 55 targets last year, and Indianapolis has no running back depth behind him, so he’ll be a three-down workhorse once again. With Jones tracking to play in Week 1, Taylor is a viable pick in the middle of the first round.
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