A traditional box score tells us the results of a game. However, it doesn’t capture all the things that happen in a game. Who got targets, where were they targeted, were their carries near the goal-line, how deep down the field were they targeted, etc.
Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric we developed to capture a player’s actual opportunity. It’s how many fantasy points we’ve expect a player to score purely from their specific workload. Talent is not considered. Each play has an expected yardage, catch probability, and TD probability. We then compare that to what actually happened on the play. The goal is to see which players are under-performing or over-performing their opportunity.
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