Evan Silva’s Matchups: Chiefs at Jaguars

Kansas City @ Jacksonville

Team Totals: Chiefs 24.5, Jaguars 21.5

Patrick Mahomes has kept his word on throwing downfield with his highest rate of 20-yard passes (13.4%, ninth) since 2018, literally carrying the Chiefs to a .500 record with a career-best 6.2 weekly rushing points. The Jags have created a league-high 12 takeaways on defense, but Mahomes’ 0.7% INT rate is tied for the lowest among 25 QBs with 108 attempts. Sometimes it’s as simple as the best player in the world operating the No. 2 Pass Rate Over Expectation. … K.C. has faced light boxes (six or fewer players) at the seventh-highest rate because no one fears Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt, who totaled four 10-yard runs in September. The former’s first receiving touchdown since 2023 also masked his inferior (and season-low) 30% share of RB touches behind Hunt (46.6%) against Baltimore. When asked about Brashard Smith’s four runs in Sunday’s blowout, HC Andy Reid said,“Matt Nagy is trying to increase Smith’s reps every week.” It’s if, not when, for Smith, whose snap rate (8.8% < 10.4% < 25.7%) increased in consecutive games. Jacksonville has also stuffed RBs for the league’s lowest success rate.