Winning and transparency are the main goals of the ETR props product, and in this space, we aim to peel back the curtain on our process and shed some light on what goes into both our player projections and how we actually select picks. We hope that sharing this with you will help you better understand how to attack these markets yourself.
Let’s dive into Week 9.
Week 9 officials: 9-9, -$49
Week 9 alts: 0-8, -$130
Overall officials: 102-68, +$3,079; +16.04% ROI
Overall alts: 9-115, -$67; -6.03% ROI
Noah Fant U2.5 Receptions +140 (2, W)
Mean proj: 2.8
This was a bet on an overhyped role and regression on catch rate.
Fant had a 72.7% catch rate over his first six seasons, but this year, that has exploded to an insane 92% rate, thanks in part to a 3.3-yard aDOT, about half of his career mark. Even with that tiny aDOT, a 92% catch rate is a crazy number and one that’s primed for regression.
An 80% catch rate is about as high as we will ever project for a TE. The ETR algorithm suggested a 75.8% catch rate on Fant, and we bumped it even further to 79%. Even at that elite rate, we were still showing about $13 EV (Expected Value) on this play.
That’s in part because, despite some relatively solid production, the routes aren’t really there. Other than a Week 7 spike, he’s been under 50% in route rate every week, including just 33.3% last week, which is a big part of why we liked this play, along with the amazing price.
ETR NFL Player Props
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