Reynolds: Offensive Player of the Year Awards Analysis

The Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) has historically been the most erratic among NFL awards races. That’s why I paid the least attention to it when I began seriously tracking these markets over a decade ago. However, over the last several years, the OPOY has gradually become the best skill player award. Given that, let’s look at some OPOY trends.

OPOY Trends

• Historically, quarterbacks and running backs have won most of the OPOY awards.
• Both MVP-winning quarterbacks and quarterbacks who did not win the MVP have won the OPOY historically.
• However, a skill-position player has won in each of the last seven OPOY races and in eight of the last nine.
• Not only has each of the last seven OPOY-winning skill players suited up for teams that made the playoffs, but each of those teams won their division.
• Three running backs and four wide receivers have won the OPOY over the last seven seasons.

What We’re Looking for in an OPOY Candidate

I have not entirely ruled out quarterbacks in this market, but I’m only looking at extremely undervalued long shots in-season in very close MVP races, where the runner-up could conceivably get OPOY votes. Otherwise, I’m focusing on skill-position players on playoff-caliber teams who can conceivably be the most productive player at their position.

OPOY Long Shots vs. Evan Silva’s Top 150

You could frame the OPOY as the award given to the best fantasy player, so let’s see if we can find any interesting values against the Big Dog’s Top 150.