Reynolds: Defensive Player of the Year Awards Analysis

The Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) is a fine example of why we dive into who wins awards and why, because who voters have selected historically is radically different than who they choose today. Let’s dive in.

DPOY Trends

• 10 of the last 12 DPOY winners were pass rushers.
• Nine of those pass rushers were first-round picks on teams with winning records.
• The outlier of that group was last year’s winner, Myles Garrett, who broke the single-season sack record (23) while playing for the 5-12 Browns.
• J.J. Watt, Aaron Donald, and Garrett have collectively won eight of the last 14 DPOY awards.
• Cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore and Patrick Surtain II are the only two non-pass rushers to win the DPOY over the past 12 years.
• Both corners are also the only DPOY winners over that span with longer than 15:1 odds.
• Splash plays (sacks and turnovers) have been the biggest factors in this race (along with team success), except for Surtain’s campaign in 2024.
• Surtain’s win coincided with playoff-bound pass rushers underwhelming.
• Playing for a winning team has been a consistent factor in this race, but playing for a high-performing defense has not.

What We’re Looking for in a DPOY Candidate

We are looking for a blue-chip pass rusher who plays on a playoff contender that has a path to leading the league in sacks. If playoff-bound pass rushers underwhelm, we can start looking at defensive backs and, to a lesser extent, off-ball linebackers who are having tremendous years.

The Value Option

Nick Bosa (+1800 to +4000 FanDuel)