When Is a Chalk Bring-Back Worth It?

Earlier this offseason, I wrote an article titled Putting the Sims to the Test. The goal of that article was to evaluate the efficacy of the post-lock sims at The Solver. The results were positive. The sims were directionally accurate at predicting cash rates, top-10 finish rates, and ROI. The simulated ROI, the most important metric, was more volatile than the other metrics, but it clearly showed that the teams with better simulated ROIs had better actual ROIs. I did warn in that article against “sim hacking” (i.e., trying to break the sims to find the best possible simulated ROI). There appears to be a simulated ROI threshold beyond which all positively simulated teams are similarly strong in practice and difficult to distinguish from one another.

In today’s article, I’m using the post-lock sims to evaluate one specific element of game stacking: whether to include the obvious opposing bring-back. Several slates last year made me wonder if chalk bring-backs were overplayed by the field. All else equal, more positive correlation improves a DFS lineup. But all else is not equal. Even good strategies in a vacuum can turn into -EV strategies if too many of our opponents implement them. It’s the same reason why the best-projected RB value on a slate could be a bad tournament play.

When the Chalk Bring-Back Is +EV

The slate that had me thinking about this was Week 9. CIN-CHI game stacks were popular; the game had a 51.5-point total, the second-highest mark on the slate. D’Andre Swift was out for the Bears, making Kyle Monangai a key value on the slate. Caleb Williams was our second-best QB value, but much more stackable than the top QB value (Jaxson Dart). Ja’Marr Chase was our top projected WR, both in raw total points and in value.

Before the slate, I was talking to Drew Dinkmeyer about a few simulated Bears-stack lineups that looked good after swapping the slightly lower-projected Puka Nacua in for Ja’Marr Chase. We both dismissed the idea as preposterous; it went against everything we’ve been taught as DFS players. Sacrifice projection and correlation? No way.