Editor’s Note: We are adding additional survivor content as part of our In-Season package this season, including projected ownership, a live show, and a dedicated Discord channel to supplement Ryan Reynolds’ weekly write-up.
This is my fifth preseason Survivor Pool Preview, which is one of my favorite articles to write every year. I gravitate toward the format because there is no formula. You’re going to need to make uncomfortable decisions to win in survivor, as you essentially need to hit a 17+ leg parlay to win a zero-sum game (unless you can negotiate a deal or sell off a stake before the end).
Things change during the NFL season, as injuries can transform a franchise, and we’ll no doubt have surprise teams emerge as well. We can, however, head into Opening Day with a better plan than the field.
In this preview, I’m going to identify the toughest slates of the season, followed by some personal team takes at the end. In-season, I’ll provide game analysis and schedule lookaheads for a variety of options every Thursday.
Slates to Be Aware Of
Week 10
Best Matchups: Chiefs at Falcons, Texans at Browns, Colts vs. Dolphins, Bills at Jets, Jaguars at Titans, Rams at Cardinals, Seahawks at Raiders
In Week 10, the Bears, Broncos, Eagles, and Buccaneers are all on their bye, taking three high-end options and another solid one in Tampa off the board right off the bat. Then you get the not-quite-trustworthy Colts at home versus the Dolphins, paired with several road options.
That second part is worse if you’re in Circa, because each of those road teams, except the Jaguars, plays on at least one holiday slate. So if you’re in that particular tournament, you need to be mindful of Week 10 when planning who you’ll have available for the holiday legs.
Week 12
Best Matchups: Bengals vs. Saints, Vikings vs. Falcons, Jaguars vs. Titans, Commanders at Cardinals
Thanksgiving coincides with Week 12, and none of the holiday games should be considered at this stage unless you’re in a tournament that requires a pick during that holiday slate. For the full week, I’d expect the aforementioned matchups to be the highest-owned of that slate, where each comes with a clear path to failure, especially Washington at Arizona.
Week 17
Best Matchups: Bills at Dolphins, Seahawks at Panthers, Vikings at Jets, Steelers at Titans, Colts at Browns, Cowboys vs. Giants
As long as Josh Allen is active, everyone who has Buffalo available in Week 17 is going to play them. Similarly, unless Seattle has a major drop-off this season, anyone who has them available in Week 17 is likely playing the Seahawks unless they also still have Buffalo. If you have neither of those two options, you’re then looking at a middling road matchup or the Cowboys against the Giants.
I also wanted to point out Week 17 because, in most tournaments that require you to pick two games in a week, this is going to be a really tough one in those formats.
Week 18
One rule I always give out for Week 18 is that you want at least one game where you have both sides of a game available, because teams rest starters and so on in the regular-season finale.
The most obvious game that most players will have available from that slant is Panthers vs. Falcons. I’d say the next one is Saints vs. Buccaneers, where I’d guess many entries will use at least one of those teams before the regular-season finale.
After that, the slate is filled with teams you’re probably not going to want to hold facing a weaker opponent, like Bills vs. Jets or Patriots vs. Dolphins. Additionally, there are plenty of matchups like Ravens vs. Steelers or Rams vs. Seahawks that you don’t want to get involved in and that you’re definitely not going to save both sides of.
The bottom line: Unless there is a gift matchup where, say, the Jaguars sit their starters and the Colts become -10 favorites, this strikes me as an abnormally tough Week 18 in survivor.
Circa-Specific Slates
The NFL schedule makers did not take into account how difficult they were going to make the two Circa holiday slates on contest entrants, as both of them are absolutely brutal for survivor players.
It’s worth noting that the Rams, Bears, Packers, Eagles, Broncos, and Bills play on both slates.
Week 12 Thanksgiving Leg
Wednesday: Rams vs. Packers
Thursday: Lions vs. Bears
Thursday: Cowboys vs. Eagles
Thursday: Bills vs. Chiefs
Friday: Steelers vs. Broncos
The Rams’ front is positioned to have an edge against the Packers’ offensive line, just as the Broncos’ front should have one against the Steelers. This far out, those two look like the best pure football matchups on a tough slate, but I wouldn’t even be considering any side of these games on a full slate if these were Opening Day matchups.
Week 16 Christmas Leg
Thursday: Eagles vs. Texans
Friday: Bears vs. Packers
Friday: Broncos vs. Bills
Friday: Seahawks vs. Rams
I have a feeling that a lot of Circa players will save the Eagles for one of these two holiday-leg matchups, where I could see Philadelphia’s Christmas Leg ownership being the highest on the slate by a lot, unless one of these other teams suffers injuries or otherwise has a major drop-off.
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Double-Pick Weeks
Week 9
- Chiefs vs. Jets
- Lions at Dolphins
- Seahawks vs. Cardinals
- 49ers vs. Raiders
- Bengals vs. Falcons (Madrid)
- Saints vs. Browns
- Broncos at Panthers
A manageable slate, where this far out the Chiefs look like a good (and likely popular) anchor, and the Saints strike me as the team a lot of players will try to sneak through here. Denver at Carolina looks like a low-owned, game-theory option given some of the Broncos’ other insertion points.
Week 12
- Bengals vs. Saints
- Vikings vs. Falcons
- Jaguars vs. Titans
- Commanders at Cardinals
We already touched on this slate. The ownership Minnesota catches in Week 4 against the Dolphins, where Brian Flores’ defense hosts the team that he’s essentially suing, will determine how popular the pairing of Bengals and Vikings will be. Heading into this slate, I’m keeping an eye on the offensive lines of Atlanta and Tennessee, because those trench matchups might determine who I go with here.
Week 13
- Broncos vs. Dolphins
- Eagles at Cardinals
- Lions at Falcons
- Bengals at Browns
Unless Denver suffers a rash of injuries, I could see that matchup being one where their projected ownership becomes irrelevant. Philly, on the other hand, I might try to avoid.
Week 14
- Bears at Dolphins
- Lions vs. Titans
- Broncos at Jets
- Seahawks vs. Giants
- Chargers at Raiders
Similar to Week 13, I could see myself not caring about Chicago’s ownership on this slate. Broncos at Jets looks like a natural game-theory pivot from Week 13 that I could see going wrong, like those that got cute and played the Rams on the road at Carolina last year instead of just playing them coming off a bye against the Saints, which I had no problem doing regardless of ownership. Seahawks vs. Giants gives me some pause as well.
Week 15
- Packers vs. Dolphins
- Bengals at Panthers
- Broncos at Raiders
- Giants vs. Browns
Again, we are very far out, but I could see the Packers and Giants as a pair being extremely high-owned on this slate. Both of those likely home favorites should have a trench advantage on defense.
Week 16
- Chargers at Dolphins
- Patriots at Jets
- Lions vs. Giants
- Saints vs. Cardinals
- Steelers vs. Panthers
This could be a brutal two-game slate. Barring injuries, I’d be comfortable playing the Chargers against Miami. We’ll see where the Patriots and Jets are at, but I don’t have much conviction about the other three matchups.
Valuable Teams I Will Hold for Specific Spots
Rams, Bills, Broncos, Lions, Eagles
I want to use the Rams against a team with a weak offensive line, in a spot where Matthew Stafford can hang 300+ yards in the air with no surprise. For most of my entries, I expect that will come between Weeks 6 and 10.
Josh Allen carries an otherwise average Bills roster, but they look like a team I’m holding until the second half of the season.
Denver has premium trenches on both sides of the ball, a borderline Hall of Fame coach, and an offense that just added Jaylen Waddle. The Broncos also have a unique home-field advantage, so I’d rather play them at home, but ultimately I want to play them in a spot where their front four can take over a game. The Broncos have many of their best matchups late in the year.
I do not view the Lions as an elite team; in fact, I’m treating them as a future fugazi, where they win 10-11 games behind a soft schedule, then lose in the first round of the playoffs. That said, their schedule gives them some insertion points, which gives a veteran team like Detroit very valuable optionality.
Count me as someone who thinks the Eagles are fading a bit, but they still have a lot of talent and several insertion points. Similar to Detroit, I like the Eagles’ optionality.
Teams I Want to Wait On
Ravens, Chiefs
Usually I want to use Lamar Jackson early, because, as we saw last year, he’s not a very good quarterback when his mobility is down. He’s also missed significant time in three of the last five years. However, Baltimore has a new coaching staff, so I want to see what that looks like on offense, and I want Jessie Minter‘s defense to be humming, ideally.
For the Chiefs, they were sub-.500 with Patrick Mahomes last year, so I want to see what this team looks like before treating them like I’ve treated Kansas City for years and years now, which historically is a team I hold for a very specific slate.
Notes
- I want to use the Steelers early, because Aaron Rodgers turns 43 this December and plays below-average teams, with average or worse offensive lines in the Falcons and Browns (twice). Pittsburgh becomes close to unusable if Rodgers goes down.
- I would be quite surprised if the Bears lost to the Jets at home in Week 4.
- Going through the schedule, I’ve found that playing the Vikings in the right spot looks like one of the keys to building a plan this year. I want Flores against a young or otherwise volatile quarterback.
- At first glance, Micah Parsons should be back late, and that Week 15 date with the Dolphins will likely see Green Bay as very highly owned, but the only real pivot I see is Week 8 vs. Carolina on a Thursday night. The Packers are worth considering in Weeks 2 and 3 as well. That creates a decision: Do I wait seven weeks to observe Green Bay, where I can decide if I play them against Carolina, or hold them for Miami and play them regardless of what ownership is?
- I’m not super crazy about the Seahawks’ schedule for survivor, and I’m not sure I want to treat them as a Super Bowl-caliber team in general, even though they just won last year, making that statement sound ridiculous. But that’s where I’m at a week away from Opening Day.
- I’d ideally like to play the Bengals against an opponent with a weak secondary with at least one liability on their interior offensive line.
- I’m looking at Dallas in either Week 8 vs. Arizona or Week 11 vs. Tennessee.
- Houston’s games against the Titans and Browns look like the best for the Texans’ front to take over. Matchups against the Commanders and Jaguars come with way more downside, given the opposing quarterbacks, but those are trench-advantage games as well.
- One of the reasons I think Jacksonville might catch 30+% ownership on Opening Day is there’s not another spot on the schedule that I look at and say, “I want to play them.”
- I could see the Saints being a team that loses a lot of people their survivor entry this year.
- The other fringe teams you may have to consider at some point are the Colts and Giants.
- There’s a good chance Tampa is very chalky in Week 2 in Baker Mayfield’s revenge game against Cleveland, but San Francisco also hosts Miami on that slate, coming off a long week.
- I’m not allergic to saving the Patriots for Week 18 vs. Miami. That thought gives you optionality with them all year, where regardless of what happens with New England coming off a Super Bowl loss, you get Mike Vrabel’s defense against a Miami team that likely finishes the year with the No. 1 overall pick.
- I could see the Chargers having a below-average defense this year, so I’m looking at them against the Jets or Dolphins primarily. I’m a little concerned that Arizona’s offense can give them a scare, but I’ll dive into that more directly for ETR subscribers next Thursday.
