Favorites often win both Rookie of the Year races, but that was not the case last year. Let’s dive into the trends and the strategies in both rookie markets.
Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) Trends
- Over the last 11 years, five quarterbacks, three running backs, and three wide receivers have won the OROY.
- Over the last six years, three quarterbacks and three wide receivers have won the OROY.
- Over the last 11 years, Dak Prescott and Alvin Kamara were the only OROY winners selected outside the top 12 picks of the NFL Draft.
- Each of the last eight OROY winners was selected inside the top 10 picks of the NFL Draft.
- Four of those last eight winners were selected with one of the first two picks in the NFL Draft.
- Kamara is the only OROY over the last 11 years with longer than +2500 Opening Day odds (Kamara was +5000).
- Garrett Wilson (+2000) and last year’s winner, Tetairoa McMillan (+1400), were the only other OROY winners over the last 11 years with +1400 or longer odds.
- In each of the last two years, I’ve pointed out the eventual OROY winner (McMillan, last year; Jayden Daniels, 2024) as preseason values I bet on.
- Daniels was available for a very short window in the +1400 to +1600 range when that market opened in May of 2024.
- There have been a few close races during this span between a quarterback and a high-performing skill player. Relative ties have gone to the quarterback in each instance.
- A specific example is when Prescott edged out teammate Ezekiel Elliott in 2016.
- Team success certainly doesn’t hurt in the OROY race, but it’s also not a requirement.
- A few recent OROY winners did not start on Opening Day, like Kamara and Justin Herbert.
What We’re Looking for in an OROY Candidate
We are looking for a quarterback, running back, or wide receiver taken within the first 10 picks who can be the league’s most productive offensive rookie. We can also consider any quarterback who will start by the end of September, or a later-drafted running back with a clear path to a major role.
OROY Overview
There is one key, unknown variable to solving this race: When does Fernando Mendoza take over at quarterback for the Raiders? Since it won’t be Opening Day, logical insertion points look like:
- Week 3 at New Orleans
- Week 8 at New York Jets
- Week 12 at Cleveland
- Week 14 vs. Chargers after the Raiders’ bye
- Week 16 vs. Titans
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