NFL Survivor is a simple game on the surface: Pick a team to win outright each week and advance to the next week if they do. In a peer-to-peer game like this, our goal isn’t just to pick the team with the highest win probability. We need to account for what the rest of the field is likely to do, how valuable each team may be later in the season, and how those variables interact with our need to advance each week.
The table below shows our projected ownership for the $1,000 buy-in Circa Survivor contest. These ownership projections are built to estimate how often each team will be selected by the field, accounting for a variety of factors, such as current win probability, relative strength, future value, and estimated team availability, among other things.
We’ll be updating these projections throughout the week as markets, news, and other relevant inputs change.
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