The term “easy game” gets thrown around half-heartedly and often in jest, mocking the simplicity of something that seems obvious with the benefit of hindsight. Survivor, however, is an easy game, right? Every week, pick one — or two, more on that in a moment — NFL teams to win. If they win, you advance, and if they lose, you’re out. Compared to traditional DFS, where we have to think about correlation, ceiling, floor, combinatorial ownership, late swap, and a variety of other things every slate, survivor feels easy.
It’s a simple game with complex strategy that requires more thought than just picking a team to win a game each week. Our goal is to outlast a field of thousands of like-minded peers who are solving for the same problem. In this article, we’ll talk about some of the most important components for realizing our survivor EV: current-week win probability, future value, benefiting from season-long chaos, and leveraging ownership.
Current Week
We’re not in the business of picking sides, totals, or moneylines, and we’re not going to suddenly pretend to be now that we’re attacking survivor with the same intensity we have for fantasy. Sure, we’re going to have takes on games; we’re going to apply the same level of effort as we do predicting individual player performance and game outcomes. But we know from years of historical data that the best source of win probability truth for the coming week is the betting market’s closing line. By the time kickoff rolls around, the market has ingested every piece of available information, including weather, injuries, sharp money, and more, to accurately price each game. We know that a team favored to win 75% of the time is going to win roughly 75% of the time. Market-implied win probabilities are well calibrated, particularly for the types of favorites that we’re most often going to be targeting. Each week, we’ll provide de-vigged market-implied win probabilities for every game, using the sharpest, most liquid sources wherever possible.
Future Value
We create the highest-quality NFL content
Our team includes renowned fantasy analysts Evan Silva and Adam Levitan, high-stakes professional DFS players, and specialists who cover niche areas that we believe are important to understand.
We don’t sell lineups or claim to have all of the answers. We do analyze what’s happening in a way that’s digestible and actionable, with a goal of preparing you to make the best decisions possible during the 2025 NFL season.
Read on to learn what’s inside our In-Season NFL subscription.
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