Survivor Pool Breakdown: Week 7

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Week 7 presents one not-so-simple question for survivor players: Do you take the chalky sub-.500 team that is the only two-score favorite on the slate, or do you mess with a lower-owned, more volatile option? Let’s figure that out.

Texans vs. Giants

Spread: Texans -10.5

Total: 42.5

ETR Ownership: 31.5%

The 2-4 Texans are 10.5-point home favorites against the 3-2-1 Giants. Perhaps more interesting is that New York has turned to J.J. McCarthy at quarterback, and the line hasn’t changed at all.

I would have liked Houston even more if Jameis Winston were playing, as Winston tends to hold the ball in search of intermediate-plus options, which could have resulted in a sack-and-turnover landslide for New York, given the quality of the Texans’ pass rush. With McCarthy, New York is more likely to deploy a muddy, conservative game plan in a grind-it-out type of effort. That, paired with the Texans returning from a London trip, creates a realistic path where Houston could play down off their big win and overseas trip, with the Giants keeping this close. If New York’s talented but underwhelming pass rush finally plays up, that mix is the Giants’ most obvious path to victory.

While that’s possible, if C.J. Stroud plays well, like he has been, and New York has to come from behind in a negative game script, Houston’s pass rush could easily take over, resulting in a rout.

From a future-value standpoint, I want to play Houston against a bad offensive line and/or a volatile quarterback. This week, they get an average offensive line with a volatile quarterback in McCarthy at home. In Week 9, coming off their bye, the Texans’ front could have a field day against the Chargers’ current mess of an offensive line, with the caveat that if L.A.’s offensive tackle situation improves, that becomes a less appealing matchup. Week 10 at Cleveland is a bad-offensive-line, volatile-quarterback option. Week 14 at Washington is a bad-offensive-line, good-quarterback matchup. My concern in Week 18 is if the Texans claw their way back into the postseason, they may have to win to get in, which would be fantastic if you hold them, but they may also be able to rest starters, so I’d be hesitant to hold Houston for that.

Ultimately, I don’t like the returning-from-London component, but I expect Houston to win, and this looks like the Texans’ best home matchup through the rest of the season, unless they need to win to get in come Week 18. That ultimately makes this a game-theory decision, one coming off the heels of the Rams losing as very large favorites with a ton of ownership.

Best Remaining Matchups: Week 9 at LAC, Week 10 at CLE, Week 14 at WAS, Week 18 vs. TEN

Vikings vs. Colts