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Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
Team Totals: Steelers 21.5, Browns 18
These teams met in Cleveland in Week 4, playing to a 27-24 result. Data on in-season division rematches shows the second game scores less. … Deshaun Watson’s last four weekly FF finishes are QB14 (vs. PIT), QB20 (@ NYJ), QB26 (vs. BAL), and QB10 (@ TEN). The Steelers have yielded the NFL’s seventh-lowest passer rating (81.4) and fifth-fewest points per game (19.7). Despite Cleveland’s 5-2 record and silly “Comeback Player of the Year” chatter, Watson has not actually played well. He’s 27th among 32 qualifiers in QBR and 29th in EPA per play. He’s a low-end two-quarterback-league option. … In Week 7’s win over Tennessee, Quinshon Judkins handled 18 touches on a 53% snap rate compared to Dylan Sampson’s nine touches and 46% playing-time clip. I believe this is Todd Monken’s optimal backfield usage, with Judkins featured on early downs and Sampson in passing situations. (Sampson ran 15 routes to Judkins’ nine.) The Steelers have stymied RBs for 3.6 yards per carry but coughed up the NFL’s third-most catches (38) to the position. I’m valuing Judkins as a largely touchdown-dependent RB2/flex here and Sampson as a PPR-specific flex.
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