Levitan: Week 18 Playoff Motivation

Editor’s Note: The 2023 Golf season began this week. For our full content schedule, head here.

Understanding which teams are motivated and likely to play their starters is a prerequisite for winning in Week 18. For the fastest look at motivation I’ve ranked each team from 1-10. With 1 being the least motivation and 10 being the most.

Here is more context and quotes on the Week 18 motivation:

AFC
1. Chiefs (13-3)
SITUATION: Currently have the No. 1 seed. Can’t fall lower than the No. 3 seed.
OUTLOOK: If the Chiefs beat the Raiders Saturday, they’ll earn the No. 1 seed and the Round 1 bye. Even though the AFC Championship Game could be played at a neutral field, the Chiefs are very motivated here. Expect them to play all-out to win.

2. Bills (12-3)
SITUATION: Can only earn No. 1 seed if the Chiefs lose Saturday. If the Chiefs win, Bills must win to retain No. 2 seed.
OUTLOOK: The Bills are reasonably motivated here, even if the Chiefs win Saturday. They want a Round 2 home game in a potential matchup with the Bengals. If they lose Sunday, it could end up on neutral field.

3. Bengals (11-4)
SITUATION: Can get as high as No. 2 seed or fall as low as on road in Round 1.
OUTLOOK: The Bengals can get the No. 2 seed with a win plus a Bills loss. If the Bengals lose to the Ravens, there will be a coinflip to decide who hosts their Round 1 matchup. So the Bengals are very reasonably motivated here.

4. Jaguars (8-8)
SITUATION: The Week 18 game against the Titans will determine the AFC South winner.
OUTLOOK: The Jaguars will be all-out to win Saturday.  

5. Chargers (10-6)
SITUATION: Can clinch the No. 5 seed with a win Sunday.
OUTLOOK: The AFC’s No. 5 seed is massive this year. They’d face the winner of Titans/Jaguars instead of one of Chiefs/Bills/Bengals. The Chargers can clinch the No. 5 seed with a win at Denver Sunday. They can also clinch the No. 5 seed simply with a Ravens loss Sunday.

That second point is important. The Ravens play at 1pm ET Sunday against a motivated Bengals team. If the Ravens lose, the Chargers will have nothing to play for at 425pm ET. It’s a dangerous situation.

“The case-by-case nature of the players, I think that that is the approach that we’re going to take, in terms of whether or not to sit them,” Chargers coach Brandon Staley said. “If there’s something that we feel like that would be a good decision, we’ll take that case by case.”

6. Ravens (10-6)
SITUATION: Have clinched playoff berth. Will either be the No. 3, No. 5, or No. 6 seed.
OUTLOOK: Ravens can still host a Round 1 game against the Bengals by beating them Sunday and then winning a coinflip. They can also still get the valuable No. 5 seed with a win plus a Chargers loss.

Note that the Ravens play at 1pm ET and the Chargers play at 425pm ET. So the Ravens are quite motivated here on a couple fronts. 

7. Patriots (8-8)
SITUATION: Can clinch the No. 7 seed with a win at Bills Sunday.
OUTLOOK: Patriots will be all-out to win Sunday.

8. Dolphins (8-8)
SITUATION: Need to win Sunday vs. Jets and have the Patriots lose.
OUTLOOK: Both these games are at 1pm ET. Dolphins will be all-out to win. 

9. Steelers (8-8)
SITUATION: Need to win Sunday and have both the Patriots/Dolphins lose.
OUTLOOK: All three of these games are at 1pm ET Sunday. Steelers will be all-out to win.

11. Titans (7-9)
SITUATION: The Week 18 game against the Jaguars will determine the AFC South winner.
OUTLOOK: The Titans will be all-out to win Saturday. 

JUST ELIMINATED LAST WEEK
* Raiders, Jets 

BEEN ELIMINATED
* Browns, Colts, Texans, Broncos

NFC
1. Eagles (13-3)
SITUATION: Must win Sunday to clinch No. 1 seed.
OUTLOOK: Eagles will be all-out to win against a Giants team which has nothing to play for. The first-round bye is very valuable. If the Eagles lose, they could fall all the way down to the No. 5 seed.

2. 49ers (12-4)
SITUATION: Still live for the No. 1 seed.
OUTLOOK: 49ers can clinch the first-round bye with a win vs. Cardinals Sunday plus an Eagles loss. Both those games start at 4:25pm ET. The 49ers could be scoreboard watching to see if the Giants can threaten the Eagles — but note that the Giants are a 14-point dog.

3. Vikings (12-4)
SITUATION: Can’t get the No. 1 seed. Can’t fall lower than the No. 3 seed.
OUTLOOK: The Vikings can earn the No. 2 seed with a win at Bears plus a 49ers loss. The Vikings play at 1pm ET and the 49ers play at 4:25pm ET.

So the question becomes how much do the Vikings care about a somewhat unlikely shot at the No. 2 seed vs. rest and the No. 3 seed?

Here’s what Kevin O’Connell has had to say so far: “I think it would probably be more subtle than [sitting starters], just knowing that the 2 seed is still available for us.”

On Friday, O’Connell “indicated there is a plan to potentially rotate them out to protect health and get reps for others.”

4. Bucs (8-8)
SITUATION: Locked into the No. 4 seed. Can’t go higher or lower.
OUTLOOK: The Bucs have an old team and nothing to play for Sunday. Todd Bowles said Monday he will play the starters, but it’s unclear how much. 

Here’s Bowles’ quote: “We can get better at a lot of things, so right now, we plan on playing him. We’ll see how the week goes going forward, but we can get better at a lot of things that we need to work on, and we don’t need our foot off the gas.”

Tom Brady does have a long history of playing in these games, going back to his time in New England.

5. Cowboys (12-4)
SITUATION: Still live for No. 1 and No. 2 seed.
OUTLOOK: The Cowboys can earn the first-round bye with a win plus losses from the Eagles and 49ers. They can earn the No. 2 seed with a win, plus a win by 49ers and loss by Eagles. 

6. Giants (9-6-1)
SITUATION: Locked into No. 6 seed.
OUTLOOK: The Giants have nothing to play for Sunday.

7. Seahawks (8-8)
SITUATION: Must win Sunday and have Packers lose to earn the final playoff spot.
OUTLOOK: The Seahawks will be all-out to beat the Rams Sunday. Then they’ll watch the Sunday night game and root for the Lions to beat the Packers.

8. Lions (8-8)
SITUATION: If the Seahawks win at 4:25pm ET Sunday, the Lions are eliminated from the playoffs. If the Seahawks lose and the Lions win on Sunday night, the Lions earn the final playoff spot.
OUTLOOK: The timing here makes it tough. The Lions will know if they control their own destiny or not after the Seahawks game Sunday.

9. Packers (8-8)
SITUATION: Can clinch the No. 7 seed with a win over Lions on Sunday night.
OUTLOOK: Packers will be all-out to win Sunday night.

JUST ELIMINATED LAST WEEK
* Saints, Panthers, Commanders

BEEN ELIMINATED
* Bears, Falcons, Rams, Cardinals