Evan Silva’s Matchups: Seahawks at Bengals

Seattle @ Cincinnati

Team Totals: Bengals 24.5, Seahawks 21.5

With Seattle’s offense back near full health off its bye and Cincinnati’s offense again humming, I took the over on this game’s total at 45.5. … LT Charles Cross (toe), LG Phil Haynes (calf), and RG Damien Lewis (ankle) all sound likely to return after the Seahawks finished their Week 4 win with C Evan Brown as their lone healthy O-Line starter. I’m still treating Geno Smith as a fringe QB1/2 against a Bengals defense that ranks eighth in the NFL in sacks (15) and has yielded a middling 6.4 yards per pass attempt. … Breaking tackles at the NFL’s fifth-highest clip among running backs, Kenneth Walker’s pre-bye touch counts were 16 > 18 > 21 > 17 on a 61% snap rate versus Zach Charbonnet’s 3 > 6 > 10 > 6 touches and 30% playing-time mark. A frustratingly boom-bust runner as a 2022 rookie, Walker’s per-carry Success Rate has risen from 40% last year to 53% this season. Cincy is coughing up over 5.0 yards per rushing attempt and 127.4 total yards per game to RBs. I’m locking in Walker as a borderline RB1/2 while still stashing Charbonnet.

Geno’s 2023 target distribution: Tyler Lockett 26; DK Metcalf 22; Jaxon Smith-Njigba 18; Walker, Noah Fant, and Colby Parkinson 10; Will Dissly 5. … Lockett (36%) and D.K.’s (37%) Air Yards shares are nearly identical, although Metcalf converted his opportunities into 111 more yards than Lockett in Weeks 1-4. This is a middling matchup for both; I’m considering each upside WR2 plays at Cincinnati.