Thorn: Biggest OL vs. DL Mismatches, Week 13

The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.

The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.

The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.

With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 13. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.

Week 13 Bye Week: Ravens, Bears, Vikings, Bills, Raiders, & Giants

DL Rankings – Week 13

1. 49ers
2. Cowboys
3. Eagles
4. Steelers
5. Jets
6. Titans
7. Chiefs
8. Browns – DE Myles Garrett suffered a significant shoulder injury in Week 12 but is determined to keep playing despite the pain.
9. Giants
10. Packers
11. Vikings
12. Jaguars
13. Ravens
14. Colts
15. Texans
16. Rams
17. Raiders
18. Lions
19. Chargers – DE Joey Bosa was put on short-term injured reserve with a foot injury suffered in Week 11.
20. Bengals
21. Panthers
22. Bills – Edge rusher Von Miller was issued a warrant for his arrest on Thursday related to a domestic violence charge that puts his availability in doubt.
23. Commanders
24. Patriots
25. Seahawks
26. Dolphins
27. Bucs
28. Broncos
29. Bears
30. Saints
31. Falcons
32. Cardinals

OL Rankings – Week 13

1. Eagles
2. Lions
3. Cowboys
4. Ravens
5. Chiefs
6. Bucs
7. 49ers
8. Colts
9. Vikings
10. Chargers – C Corey Linsley remains out with a “non-emergent heart-related issue” that has kept him out of the lineup since Week 3.
11. Texans – LG Tytus Howard is out for the year with a knee injury.
12. Browns
13. Jaguars
14. Bengals
15. Bills
16. Falcons
17. Packers
18. Seahawks – RT Abraham Lucas was designated to return from a knee injury that has kept him out since Week 1 and will play Thursday vs. Dallas.
19. Jets
20. Saints
21. Patriots
22. Cardinals
23. Dolphins – RG Robert Hunt was limited in Wednesday’s practice after missing last week with an injury.
24. Bears
25. Rams
26. Broncos
27. Giants
28. Commanders
29. Steelers
30. Raiders
31. Panthers – RG Austin Corbett is out for the season with an MCL injury.
32. Titans

Biggest Week 13 DL > OL Mismatches

1. Steelers DL (4th) > Cardinals OL (22nd)
2. Browns DL (8th) > Rams OL (25th)
3. Colts DL (14th) > Titans OL (32nd)
4. Chiefs DL (7th) > Packers OL (17th)
5. Jets DL (5th) > Falcons OL (16th)

Biggest Week 13 OL > DL Mismatches

1. Lions OL (2nd) > Saints DL (30th)

DL > OL

1. Steelers DL > Cardinals OL