Week 18 Record: 4-4, -$16
YTD: 239-211, +$466
The goal with our betting product is winning and full transparency. Every week, we’ll recap a selection of our official prop bets, telling you what we got right, what we got wrong, and how we got there. Here’s a look back at Week 18.
Nick Mullens Over 33.5 Pass Attempts -115 (44, W)
Mean proj: 37.2
Questionable quarterback play in the wake of the Kirk Cousins injury never did stop the Vikings from being one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league.
They’ve been chucking it no matter who’s under center, finishing the year with the fifth-highest Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE).
We expected that to continue against a pass-funnel Lions defense, and although the Vikings actually finished with a negative PROE in this game (-2.3%), overall play volume (70) and a pass-friendly game script that called for an Expected Pass Rate of 72.3% helped Mullens to fly by this line.
Nick Mullens Under 1.5 Passing TDs +106 (2, L)
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