Evan Silva’s Matchups: Divisional Round – Texans at Ravens

Saturday Football

4:30 PM ET Game

Houston @ Baltimore

Team Totals: Ravens 26.5, Texans 17.5

C.J. Stroud enters Week 20 having completed 192 of 283 passes (67.8%) for 2,582 yards (9.1 YPA) and a 17:4 TD-to-INT ratio plus 20/100/2 rushing over his last 10 games. Perhaps more notably since the Texans are two-score dogs here, Stroud leads all quarterbacks in combined passing and rushing EPA when playing from behind (Next Gen Stats). Yet Stroud catches his hardest matchup of the season at Baltimore, which won 2023’s Defensive Triple Crown by allowing the NFL’s fewest points per game (16.5) while leading the league in both takeaways (31) and sacks (60). The Ravens have given up 20 points or fewer in six of their last seven games, while Stroud’s 2023 yards per pass attempt dipped from 8.9 at home to 7.3 in away games, and he is now facing the league’s stingiest defense on the road. … Devin Singletary enters Week 20 with touch counts of 19, 25, and 16 over Houston’s last three games on corresponding playing-time clips of 62%, 88%, and 72%. Singletary is operating as a near-every-down back, while Baltimore coughed up a crisp 4.47 yards per carry to enemy backs this season. Scheme misfit Dameon Pierce has played a total of six offensive snaps over Houston’s last two games. Due to projected negative game script, I remain skeptical of Singletary as a playoff DFS start. The Texans look likely to trail.

Nico Collins’ six receiving lines in games where Stroud has played but Tank Dell (broken leg, I.R.) has not are 6/96/1, 9/195/1, 7/80/0, 9/191/1, 7/104/1, and 4/80/0. Collins’ Week 20 matchup is enhanced by the absence of Ravens top CB Marlon Humphrey (calf), who will be replaced by fifth-team journeyman Ronald Darby.