Thorn: Biggest OL vs. DL Mismatches, Week 3

The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.

The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.

The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.

With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 3. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.

Week 3 Bye Week: None

DL Rankings – Week 3

1. Steelers
2. 49ers
3. Browns
4. Cowboys
5. Giants
6. Eagles
7. Texans – DL Denico Autry is suspended for the first six games.
8. Chiefs
9. Chargers
10. Titans
11. Seahawks
12. Packers
13. Raiders – DE Malcolm Koonce is on short-term injured reserve until after Week 4.
14. Bengals – DE Myles Murphy is on short-term injured reserve with a knee sprain that will keep him out for at least the first four weeks of the season. DTs BJ Hill and Sheldon Rankins are dealing with hamstring strains that have put their status this week in jeopardy.
15. Jaguars
16. Ravens
17. Bills
18. Lions
19. Bucs – DTs Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey both missed practice on Wednesday.
20. Jets – Haason Reddick has skipped the entire offseason and preseason holding out for a new contract that doesn’t have an estimated end date.
21. Colts – DT DeForest Buckner was placed on short-term injured reserve.
22. Commanders
23. Vikings
24. Rams
25. Broncos
26. Saints
27. Patriots – DT Christian Barmore is out indefinitely with blood clots.
28. Dolphins – Bradley Chubb is on the PUP list and will miss at least the first four games of the season.
29. Falcons
30. Bears
31. Cardinals
32. Panthers – DT Derrick Brown is out for the season with a knee injury.

OL Rankings – Week 3

1. Eagles
2. Lions
3. Colts
4. Chargers
5. Bucs
6. Chiefs
7. Jets
8. Texans
9. Bills
10. Vikings
11. Falcons
12. Browns – RT Dawand Jones missed practice on Wednesday due to a knee injury but has said that he plans to play this weekend.
13. Cowboys
14. Steelers – LG Isaac Seumalo missed practice on Wednesday after missing Weeks 1 and 2.
15. Packers
16. 49ers
17. Jaguars
18. Ravens
19. Seahawks
20. Bengals
21. Saints
22. Raiders
23. Cardinals
24. Giants
25. Broncos – RT Mike McGlinchey is expected to be out around a month with a sprained MCL.
26. Rams – LT Joe Noteboom, LG Steve Avila, and C Jonah Jackson are on short-term injured reserve.
27. Panthers
28. Bears
29. Titans
30. Dolphins
31. Patriots – LT Vederian Lowe and LG Sidy Sow are out this week.
32. Commanders

Biggest Week 3 DL > OL Mismatches

1. 49ers DL (2nd) > Rams OL (26th)
2. Browns DL (3rd) > Giants OL (24th)
3. Seahawks DL (11th) > Dolphins OL (30th)
4. Packers DL (12th) > Titans OL (29th)
5. Raiders DL (13th) > Panthers OL (27th)

Biggest Week 3 OL > DL Mismatches

1. Lions OL (2nd) > Cardinals DL (31st)
2. Colts OL (3rd) > Bears DL (30th)

DL > OL

1. 49ers DL > Rams OL