Editor’s Note 2: Our Bundle Package is live here! Combines the Draft Kit and the In-Season package at a limited time discount.
Editor’s Note 3: We have launched a subscriber-only Discord. For instructions on how to join, click here.
Below are the ETR Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings. For our full Dynasty rankings, CLICK HERE.
Rookie Evaluation Philosophy
- Leading up to the NFL Draft, it is important to put together a profile for each prospect that can be applied to the draft position once it is known.
- My profiles are done primarily through statistics, but there is also value in understanding where players win through watching them, and reading the analysis of trusted scouts.
- We look holistically at prospects, attempting to develop a sound range of outcomes to understand prospects through probabilities.
- Age and experience both matter for all prospects, but will vary in degree by position.
- This is the position we think we are the worst at evaluating.
- We are leaning the most on draft position here.
- Statistically, we like to see high adjusted yards per pass attempt (AY/A), but trying to avoid small sample size biases.
- Rushing ability matters a ton given both the overall direction of the position, and the built-in floor.
- Landing spot matters the most here. We want immediate volume if we can get it.
- Prefer to see a strong receiving resume, but a lack of collegiate receptions does not prevent a prospect from doing it at the next level.
- Adjusted yards per team play ([rushing yards + 2*receiving yards]/plays) the most valued statistic.
- 40 time and speed score matter, but perhaps only inasmuch as they relate to draft position.
- Position we can develop the most reliable statistical profile for.
- Breakout age and year (based on 30% dominator rating threshold) most important statistic.
- Total years out of high school matters a ton: three-year players wildly more successful than every other group.
- Receiving yards per team pass attempt preferred production statistic.
- Not a ton of data on TEs due to small sample size of prospects.
- Care a lot about athleticism — we want TEs who can create mis-matches.
- Any TE who can come close to the WR breakout thresholds needs to be taken notice of.
- Need to pay attention to scouting profiles to see if players are more blocker than receiver.