Evan Silva’s Matchups: AFC Championship – Chiefs at Ravens

3:00 PM ET Game

Kansas City @ Baltimore

Team Totals: Ravens 24.5, Chiefs 20.5

Patrick Mahomes’ AFCCG outlook is uninspiring from a matchup standpoint on the road against a Ravens defense that allowed 2023’s fewest points per game (16.5) while leading the league in takeaways (31) and sacks (60). Chiefs OTs Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor struggle badly in pass protection, while LG Joe Thuney (pec) is unlikely to play. Thuney’s loss is especially concerning versus white-hot Ravens DT Justin Madubuike, who rung up 13 regular-season sacks and was all but unblockable in Baltimore’s Divisional Round win over Houston. I did bet the over on Mahomes’ rushing prop (26.5 yards) in this one; being hurried could lead to more off-script scrambles, while Mahomes has cleared 27 rushing yards in eight of his last 14 playoff games. … Thuney’s absence plus Isiah Pacheco’s ankle and toe injuries are cause for some Week 21 pause as it pertains to Pacheco’s postseason-DFS playability, although signs point toward Pacheco facing Baltimore. Over his last nine games, Pacheco has turned 134 carries into 702 yards (5.2 YPC) and six touchdowns and caught 25 of 28 targets. In Jerick McKinnon’s (core muscle surgery, I.R.) absence, Pacheco has arguably emerged as Kansas City’s most consistent skill-position player. Pacheco should flirt with 20 touches if the Chiefs keep this game close. … Clyde Edwards-Helaire is worth keeping in mind on the off chance Pacheco sits or pre-game reports suggest he’ll be limited. Playing 28% of Kansas City’s postseason offensive snaps, CEH has parlayed 11 touches into 56 yards.

I took the under on Rashee Rice’s 59.5 receiving-yards prop on the basis that I don’t believe Mahomes will hit his peak passing yardage at Baltimore, and Rice’s primary matchup is daunting versus plus-sized Ravens CB Kyle Hamilton.