Last updated: October 31st at 4:21pm ET.
Team Totals: Jets 22, Dolphins 19
Following back-to-back turnover-plagued games against New England and Jacksonville’s dominant pass rushes, Sam Darnold catches on-paper Week 9 relief at Miami, where Brian Flores’ team ranks bottom six in sack rate (4.2%) and QB Hit Rate (12.2%) and has surrendered top-16 fantasy quarterback scores in 7-of-7 games, including five top-12 finishes. The Dolphins sent top CB Xavien Howard (knee) to I.R., while Gang Green thankfully held onto reported trade-block RB Le’Veon Bell and WR Robby Anderson. Darnold’s Week 9 floor is concerning based on his recent play, but his ceiling is immense in such a plus spot. Darnold is QB1 stream-able with DFS-tournament appeal and stack-able with both Le’Veon and Anderson. Miami has hemorrhaged an AFC-high 8.9 yards per pass attempt and 18:2 TD-to-INT ratio through seven games. … Le’Veon is a legit squeaky wheel after being the subject of pre-deadline trade rumors, then expressing late-week dissatisfaction with his recent touch counts. He should also be hungry after witnessing his ex-Steelers teammate backs eat up the Dolphins’ front for 167 yards and a touchdown last Monday night. Even as Bell has disappointed severely with 16 or fewer touches in three straight games, this is a get-right spot for Gang Green’s spurned bellcow.
Darnold’s 2019 target distribution: Jamison Crowder 36; Anderson 29; Bell 19; Demaryius Thomas 18; Ryan Griffin 13; Vyncint Smith 6; Ty Montgomery 4. … Even after consecutive clunkers, this is a high-key smash spot for Crowder; teams targeting the slot against Miami are 33-of-49 passing for 490 yards (10.0 YPA) and seven TDs. Crowder runs 73% of his routes inside. … Kept on the Jets’ 53 amid trade rumors, Anderson is another squeaky-wheel candidate that checks additional boxes as Week 9’s No. 3 buy-low receiver in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Model facing a Dolphins secondary missing top CB Xavien Howard. Even while acknowledging Anderson’s low floor, this is a picture-perfect week to fire him hard in season long and DFS. If you isolate Darnold’s Weeks 1 and 6-8 starts, Anderson ranks No. 9 in the NFL in Air Yards (424). … Demaryius also popped in Week 9’s Buy Low Air Yards Model and is playable as a WR4/flex based on opportunity in a favorable matchup. … Griffin scored two Week 8 touchdowns against the Jaguars but remained a minimal part of Gang Green’s passing offense with four targets or fewer for the seventh straight game. Chris Herndon’s (hamstring) Week 9 availability remains unclear.
Even if streaming the Jets’ defense feels uncomfortable, they check obvious flow-chart boxes after 7-of-7 DSTs to face the Dolphins banked top-12 fantasy results to begin the year. Miami quarterbacks have combined for 13 turnovers in seven games while absorbing sacks at the NFL’s third-highest rate (10.1%) and QB hits at a league-high 24.3% clip. … The possibility of in-game quarterback change pushes Ryan Fitzpatrick into boom-bust two-QB-league territory coming off a Monday night performance where Fitz played well enough to engineer an early 14-0 lead but wound up turning the ball over three times in Miami’s 27-14 road defeat. It’s simply only a matter of time before coach Brian Flores returns the keys to Josh Rosen. … Mark Walton hogged an appetizing 88% snap rate in Miami’s post-Kenyan Drake Week 8 backfield, only to lose an ugly late-game fumble and wind up with 54 scoreless yards on 14 touches against the Steelers. As Kalen Ballage has done nothing of 2019 note beyond vulture goal-line TDs, Walton’s lead-back role still seems secure against a Jets defense missing DT Leonard Williams (trade) and ILB C.J. Mosley (groin). Even in an abysmal offensive environment, Walton is flex viable in fantasy.
Fitzpatrick’s 2019 target distribution: DeVante Parker 30; Preston Williams 28; Mike Gesicki 15; Albert Wilson 10; Allen Hurns 9; Walton and Jakeem Grant 8; Ballage 7. … Destroyed by Jaguars outside WRs Chris Conley (4/103/1) and D.J. Chark (6/79/1) last week, Gang Green’s secondary is ripe for the Week 9 picking by Parker and Williams. Consistently ignored in season-long leagues and DFS, Parker has cleared 55 yards and/or scored a touchdown in 6-of-7 games and ranks top 15 in Air Yards (715) despite an early bye. Parker is an easy WR3 in this plum spot. … Williams also checks numerous boxes as a member of Week 9’s Buy Low Air Yards Model in a gorgeous matchup. Williams has scored a touchdown and/or exceeded 40 yards in 6-of-7 games. … Here’s how Week 8 routes run worked out for Dolphins receivers: Williams 36; Parker 35; Wilson 17; Hurns 15; Grant 10. … And tight ends: Gesicki 29; Nick O’Leary and Durham Smythe 6. … Even if his box-score production doesn’t fully reflect it, Gesicki’s receiving usage is strong enough for ownership in tight end-premium leagues. Gesicki will probably have a big game soon.
Score Prediction: Jets 24, Dolphins 23