Last updated: October 11th at 8:45am ET
Team Totals: Packers 26, Lions 21
The Lions return from a lengthy bye for Monday night’s division showdown at Green Bay, which plays run-funnel defense by permitting 115/606/6 (5.27 YPC) rushing and the NFL’s tenth-most receiving yards per game to enemy backs (49.2). This plays at least somewhat into the run-first hands of Detroit, where Kerryon Johnson logged 70% of the Lions’ pre-bye Week 4 snaps versus the Chiefs, tied his season high in routes run (20), and established a career-high in carries (26). So long as Detroit keeps Monday night’s game close – they’re five-point dogs at Lambeau Field – Kerryon should push for 20 more touches as the Lions’ near-every-down back. … Having yielded consecutive fantasy results of QB10 (Carson Wentz) and QB5 (Dak Prescott), Green Bay’s pass defense no longer looks as impenetrable as it did against Mitchell Trubisky, Kirk Cousins, and Joe Flacco in Weeks 1-3. Matthew Stafford visits Lambeau with QB4 > QB14 > QB28 > QB5 fantasy results under his belt, exceeding expectations in a low-volume if still-aggressive vertical passing game wherein Stafford ranks No. 2 among 33 qualified quarterbacks in percentage of passes attempted 20-plus yards downfield. Green Bay has surrendered the NFL’s fifth-most completions of 20-plus yards (20), giving Stafford life as a low-end streamer, albeit with a volatile fantasy outlook.
Stafford’s 2019 target distribution: Kenny Golladay 36; Marvin Jones 24; T.J. Hockenson and Danny Amendola 19; Kerryon 9; Jesse James 7; Ty Johnson and Logan Thomas 5; J.D. McKissic 4. … Golladay is the heartbeat of Detroit’s downfield passing game, pacing the Lions in targets by a margin of 12 and Air Yards by 120 over runner-up Jones. As Amari Cooper (11/226/1), Michael Gallup (7/113/1), Allen Robinson (7/102/0), Courtland Sutton (5/87/0), Stefon Diggs (1/49/1), and Alshon Jeffery (3/38/1) have all delivered useful games against the Packers, Golladay should be locked into lineups as a WR2 on Monday night. … Although Jones is much less involved, he is on pace for career highs in receptions (72) and yards (1,108) and is a viable WR3 against what’s shaping up as an overrated Green Bay secondary. … Teams targeting tight ends against the Packers are 22-of-27 passing for 182 yards (6.7 YPA) and one touchdown. Assuming Hockenson (concussion) is cleared, he will be an upside streamer against as Packers defense likely to be missing dynamic rookie FS Darnell Savage (high ankle sprain). … Randall Cobb (3/53/0), Nelson Agholor (0/0), DaeSean Hamilton (0/0), and Anthony Miller (0/0) have been erased by the Packers’ slot coverage. I’m keeping a fade on Amendola beyond one-game DFS slates.
Back home after a monster upset at JerryWorld, Aaron Rodgers catches the Lions with underwhelming fantasy finishes of QB23 > QB19 > QB25 > QB2 > QB23 on his resume to face Matt Patricia’s defense off its bye. 3-of-4 quarterbacks to face Detroit have registered top-12 outcomes, but Davante Adams’ (toe) continued absence takes wind out of Rodgers’ upside sails, and Rodgers’ lone result above QB19 came against the decidedly pass-funnel Eagles. Although Matt LaFleur’s offense is showing signs of weekly progression, Rodgers remains an okay-not-great season-long start based on his to-date production. … Even as Jamaal Williams (concussion) is due to back to return Green Bay’s backfield into a one-two punch, an assumption of rational coaching would keep Aaron Jones atop the committee after his four-TD Week 5 game. And it wasn’t just the touchdowns; Jones led the Packers in both rushing (19/107/4) and receiving (7/75/0) and single-handedly accounted for 54.3% of Green Bay’s offensive yards. If that doesn’t propel Jones to clear-cut feature-back duties over slow-and-plodding Williams, I’m not sure what will. Either way, Jones warrants locked-in RB1 treatment against the Lions, who have surrendered 88/375/5 (4.26 YPC) rushing and the NFL’s third-most receiving yards per game (69.8) to enemy backs.
Rodgers’ Week 5 target distribution: Jones 8; Geronimo Allison 6; Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Tre Carson 4; Jimmy Graham 3; Jake Kumerow and Marcedes Lewis 2; Robert Tonyan 1. … Green Bay’s widespread target allotment and new commitment to using running backs in the passing game have thrown a major wrench into their non-Davante Adams pass catchers. … Allison capitalized on Adams’ Week 5 absence for season highs in targets and playing time (86%) but is a touchdown-dependent WR5 without a game above 52 yards this year. … MVS remains the preferred Packers pass-catcher play. He booked a year high in snaps (94%) in last week’s win at Dallas, led Green Bay in Air Yards by a 60-yard margin over runner-up Allison, and popped as this week’s No. 4 buy low in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Model. Valdes-Scantling remains a boom-bust WR3/flex with Lions top CB Darius Slay due back from his pre-bye hamstring injury. … Kumerow is playable on one-game DFS slates after stepping in as the Packers’ clear-cut No. 3 wideout in Dallas and playing 67% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps but only drawing two targets. … Despite missing snaps with groin and quad injuries in Weeks 2-3, Graham ranks 11th among NFL tight ends in routes run and has carved out a fairly big role in Green Bay’s passing game when healthy. The Lions allowed 9/128/0 on 10 targets to Chiefs tight ends in their pre-bye Week 4 loss.
Score Prediction: Packers 23, Lions 21