Last updated: October 17th at 3:30pm ET.
Team Totals: Packers 26, Raiders 21
Whereas Green Bay will play this game on a short week following Monday night’s comeback win over Detroit, the Raiders visit Lambeau with a distinct rest advantage after their Week 6 bye and a major matchup edge versus the Packers’ run-soft defense. Evolving into a smashmouth team under coach Jon Gruden, Oakland ranks top ten in yards per carry (4.9) and rushing yards per game (134.4), convenient against Green Bay DC Mike Pettine’s run funnel, which enemy backs have torched for 131/644/7 (4.92 YPC) rushing. Although Josh Jacobs’ floor remains low due to his light passing-game involvement – he has just six catches in five games and scored fewer than 13 PPR points in 3-of-5 weeks – riding Jacobs gives the Raiders their best chance to win from a Week 7 matchup standpoint. Jacobs is a boom-bust RB2 play in ex-Packers assistant Gruden’s old stomping grounds. … With lowly QB21 > QB28 > QB20 > QB17 > QB25 fantasy results to date, Derek Carr is safe to ignore beyond two-quarterback leagues. The Raiders’ passing game is devoid of explosiveness, especially with Tyrell Williams (foot) on the mend. RT Trent Brown (calf, off field) is also in danger of missing Sunday’s affair, which would be a huge concern against red-hot Packers edge rushers Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith.
Carr’s Weeks 1-5 target distribution: Darren Waller 42; Tyrell Williams 24; Hunter Renfrow 23; Foster Moreau 11; Jalen Richard 9; Jacobs and DeAndre Washington 8; Derek Carrier 7; Trevor Davis 4; Keelan Doss 3. … Teams targeting tight ends against the Pack are 27-of-35 for a measly 211 yards (6.03 YPA) and one touchdown. Even if Sunday’s matchup isn’t thrilling for Waller, his usage is, having played 90.1% of the Raiders’ 2019 offensive snaps and commanded a 26% target share, most among NFL tight ends. Waller’s matchup is improved by the absence of dynamic Packers FS Darnell Savage (ankle). Waller has earned every-week top-five TE1 treatment and should soon experience positive-TD regression with zero end-zone trips on the year. … Williams owns a team-high 39% Air Yards market share but still isn’t over the plantar fasciitis that sidelined him for Oakland’s pre-bye upset of the Bears. Held below 50 yards in every game since Week 1 and potentially limited if active against the Pack, Williams is a Week 7 fade. … Routes run were distributed as follows among Raiders wideouts in Week 5: Davis 26 > Renfrow 18 > Doss 14 > Marcell Ateman 11. The Raiders shamefully traded a future fifth-round pick for unsalvageable Zay Jones, who is averaging 5.3 career yards per target. Ignore Oakland pass catchers beyond Waller.
Picking it up after a painfully slow start in first-year coach Matt LaFleur’s offense, Aaron Rodgers was fantasy football’s overall QB9 in Weeks 4-6 and now draws an Oakland defense that should give him a clean pocket with the NFL’s ninth-lowest sack rate (5.0%) and seventh-lowest QB Hit Rate (11.6%). Raiders situational pass rusher Arden Key (knee) won’t play, and top-five reach Clelin Ferrell has been concerningly quiet off the edge. Even with an injury-decimated receiver corps, Rodgers is low-end QB1 playable in a plum draw at home. … Aaron Jones followed up his four-TD Week 5 eruption by losing a fumble, dropping a would-be 33-yard touchdown catch, and getting out-snapped (49%) and out-touched (15) by Jamaal Williams (53%, 18), who totaled 136 yards and a touchdown in one of the best games of Williams’ ordinarily-plodding career. While Jones will always maintain more one-for-one explosiveness, he must be downgraded into mid-range RB2 territory in what deserves to devolve into a timeshare based on Jones’ miserable play and Williams’ standout performance in Week 6. Williams has logged touch counts of 12 > 14 > 18 in his last three full games and is a high-end flex option against the Raiders.
Rodgers’ Week 6 target distribution: Jones and Geronimo Allison 7; Williams, Allen Lazard, and Jimmy Graham 5; Jake Kumerow 3; Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Darrius Shepherd, and Marcedes Lewis 2. … As Davante Adams (toe) and Allison (concussion) appear unlikely to play and Valdes-Scantling (knee/ankle) missed early-week practice time, Green Bay’s Week 7 wideout distribution is probably going to be tough to peg. Lazard was the star (4/65/1) of last Monday night’s comeback win over Detroit and earned post-game praise from Rodgers but ran only 11 routes on 23% of the snaps. Kumerow led the group in routes run (36) but commanded only three targets and has yet to clear 20 yards this year. MVS has topped 52 yards once in six games, and his Week 7 health is entirely unclear nursing multiple injuries. Shepard committed a back-breaking goal-line drop that popped into the air and was intercepted by Lions CB Justin Coleman, the exact kind of play that could earn Shepard a long-term stay in Rodgers’ doghouse. The Packers signed journeyman slot WR Ryan Grant on Wednesday, confirmation they are concerned about their health at wideout. Everyone is a Week 7 dart throw here. … Graham also dropped a Week 6 touchdown catch and is battling an ankle injury. His floor has been basement low throughout the year.
Score Prediction: Packers 24, Raiders 21