Last updated: October 31st at 4:45pm ET
Team Totals: Bills 23, Redskins 13.5
Regardless of which quarterback Washington trots out at Buffalo, this is an obvious stay-away game as the 2019 season’s lowest-totaled contest so far. Buffalo’s D/ST is an elite play, of course; Washington has scored 17 points or fewer in seven straight games and nine or fewer in four of its last five. … Interim Redskins coach Bill Callahan remains obsessed with the run, forcing touch counts of 25 > 20 > 16 onto Adrian Peterson’s plate since replacing Jay Gruden. Yet Peterson’s Week 9 matchup is imposing as a two-score road dog whose receiving role remains negligible with four targets in the last three games. Callahan also expressed confidence Chris Thompson (toe) will return to cap A.P.’s playing-time ceiling, while Peterson (ankle) missed most of the practice week. … Derrius Guice (knee) is eligible for Week 11 I.R. return but will probably prove fool’s gold as a committee back in one of the league’s worst offenses.
Case Keenum’s 2019 target distribution: Terry McLaurin 38; Trey Quinn 32; Paul Richardson 29; Thompson 28; Vernon Davis 17; Jeremy Sprinkle 12; Peterson 7; Wendell Smallwood and Steven Sims 6; Kelvin Harmon 4. … Playing McLaurin in fantasy with any non-Keenum Redskins quarterback is a terrifying proposition; McLaurin has caught 25-of-38 Keenum targets (66%) for 407 yards (10.7 YPA) and five touchdowns, versus 3-of-8 for 51 yards (6.4 YPA) and no scores from everyone else. Tre’Davious White’s potential shadow coverage is another Week 9 McLaurin concern; White has yielded a paltry 114 yards and zero touchdowns on 35 targets (3.3 YPA) this season. … Quinn belongs on season-long waiver wires with downward-trending playing time and fewer than 50 yards in 11-of-11 NFL appearances. … Richardson has 50 yards or fewer in 13-of-15 games with the Redskins while totaling 34 scoreless yards since Week 5. … Not a single tight end has cleared 50 yards against the Bills’ stingy zone this season.
Even as Josh Allen has lacked the weekly fantasy ceiling he often hit as a rookie, his floor has stayed high with top-16 results in 6-of-6 games played start to finish and at least 20 rushing yards in all seven starts. The Skins happen to have allowed the NFL’s sixth-most QB rushing yards and bring well-below-average pass rush, ranking 19th in sack rate (6.7%) and 25th in QB Hit Rate (13.8%). Only six teams have allowed more touchdown passes this year (14). Despite a mildly disappointing fantasy campaign to date, Allen is a confident season-long QB1 play here. … Although Frank Gore out-touched Devin Singletary 9 to 7 in last week’s loss to Philadelphia, Singletary seemed to pull away as OC Brian Daboll’s favored option by out-snapping Gore 68% to 29% and running 31 pass routes, Singletary’s most since Week 1. (Gore’s five routes were his fewest since the opener.) Singletary hit second-half pay dirt on a third-and-13 screen pass from 28 yards out. His passing-game superiority is notable against the Skins, who’ve allowed the NFL’s second-most running back receptions (52). As backs facing Washington have combined to average a whopping 33.6 touches per game, this should finally give Singletary an opportunity to approach the 15-20 touch range as an upside RB2/flex. Gore is still a viable flex, albeit with an obviously-lower ceiling.
Allen’s 2019 target distribution: John Brown and Cole Beasley 48; Dawson Knox 22; Singletary 12; T.J. Yeldon 9; Gore, Isaiah McKenzie, and Tommy Sweeney 8; Duke Williams 7; Tyler Kroft and Robert Foster 4. … Turning in his highest-floor season to date, Brown has 50-plus yards and five-plus targets in 7-of-7 games and is on pace for career highs in yards per target (9.9), catch rate (72%), and yards per game (75.3). DeSean Jackson (8/154/2), Stefon Diggs (7/143/0), Julian Edelman (8/110/1), Sterling Shepard (7/76/0), Taylor Gabriel (6/75/3), Devin Smith (3/74/1), Kendrick Bourne (3/69/0), Michael Gallup (6/68/0), Allen Robinson (6/60/0), Alshon Jeffery (5/49/2), Amari Cooper (4/44/1), and DeVante Parker (3/28/1) have all met or beaten expectations against Washington, which unsuccessfully shopped weekly burn victim Josh Norman ahead of Tuesday’s trade deadline and is allowing the NFL’s 11th-most fantasy points per game to receivers despite facing the league’s ninth-fewest pass attempts per game (33.0). Brown is a confident WR2 play. … Beasley runs 76% of his routes inside, where the Redskins have permitted 49 completions on 57 slot targets (86%) for 503 yards (8.8 YPA) and four touchdowns. With 40-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 6-of-7 games, Beasley warrants PPR-oriented WR3 treatment in this plus draw. Beasley has double-digit PPR points in five of his last six. … Williams operated as Buffalo’s clear-cut No. 3 wideout ahead of Foster in last week’s defeat, but this passing game won’t support more than two week-to-week producers. … Knox and Kroft appear set to cancel each other out for fantasy purposes after splitting routes run almost right down the middle (Knox 21; Kroft 20) against the Eagles.
Score Prediction: Bills 23, Redskins 10