Each week in this space, we’ll look at how fantasy football ADP has changed across real money drafts over the past week. The goal is to learn how drafters playing for cash prizes are reacting to news, injuries, and more to build their teams. Finally, at the bottom of the article, we will pull out the takeaways we think are important to understand from these moves.
To listen to a breakdown of this info in a short audio format, check out the Establish The Run Podcast (Episode released Monday afternoon).
We cover ADPs for FantasyPros (most reflective of a “home league”), Underdog Fantasy, FFPC, and NFFC. We excluded NFFC this week because their sample size was too small.
- The retirement of Rob Gronkowski had a heavy impact on this past week’s rankings. He’s going undrafted frequently on Underdog. We still believe he’s worth a late-round pick there as the third TE in a three-TE build. He’s also the perfect late-round pick in managed leagues, where you can stash or drop him when the season starts with little opportunity cost.
- The biggest beneficiaries to Gronkowski’s announced retirement from an ADP perspective are Russell Gage and Cameron Brate. We have Brate valued around where his ADP has settled — TE23. He could have a consistent red-zone role, but we’re still skeptical of his ability to be a target earner and are considering the possibilities that Gronkowski returns or the team makes a different TE addition.
Cam Brate's receiving lines in the five games Rob Gronkowski missed last year:
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) June 22, 2022
- You can see the “home league” market is behind at the RB position with many prototypical “dead zone” RBs going too early, particularly the established names. Of the Top 100 RB movers via FantasyPros ADP, it’s the ones with more uncertainty who are going at the best prices — Breece Hall, Tony Pollard, and Kenneth Walker.
- Fallout over Deshaun Watson suspension concerns continues as the Cleveland skill-position players are still dropping in ADP. As we touched on last week, David Bell is our preferred option there at cost.
- Inside the Top 100 on Underdog, we’re seeing RB ADP rise on the whole and WR ADP fall on the whole.
- On FFPC, the market is shifting to drafting Chris Evans over Samaje Perine as Joe Mixon‘s handcuff. We’re still undecided here and have both ranked a little behind ADP, but we view them as draftable late. The younger Evans provides more upside, but Perine may have a leg up on the RB2 job…for now.
Draft Kit subscribers can find our full rankings for all formats here.