Hermsmeyer: What Metrics Matter for Fantasy WRs?

We are drowning in information. In pretty much every aspect of life, figuring out what actually matters and what you can safely ignore is one of the most +EV things you can do. This is true for season-long fantasy football, DFS, running a company, or deciding how to house train your new puppy (do NOT listen to the “potty pad” people. Shills and grifters, all of them).

Sometimes even understanding where to begin is difficult. What are the variables you should consider when training a Cavapoo not to perma-poop all over your cream-colored furniture? It’s hard to know. Luckily, for wide receivers, the problem is relatively straightforward. We want to know which parts of WR production are likely to continue into the future. Which stats and metrics best help us predict fantasy points so that we can win our weekly matchups?

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One way to answer the question is to conduct a stability analysis so we can rank the stats according to their predictiveness. Below is a chart based on a large multi-year sample of wide receiver season-pairs. The stability metric used is the year-to-year r-squared of the stat, which you can think of as a grade from 0 to 1, with higher being more stable or predictive.