Draft time is upon us. Your fantasy football draft strategy is obviously heavily dependent on what pick you have. In this article, we’ll dig into what we think is the optimal strategy if you have an early pick in the first round. For the purpose of this article, we will be using FantasyPros half-PPR ADP, though we understand many home leagues will not play out like this, and we’ll try to talk through multiple ways your draft could play out.
ROUND 1 STRATEGY
Jahmyr Gibbs is the 1.01 in fantasy football this year, and we have him well clear of other contenders across formats. Gibbs’ pass-catching acumen is well documented: He posted a career-high 94 targets in 2025, third among all running backs. Gibbs also separated from a rushing volume standpoint over the second half of the season, out-carrying David Montgomery 130-69 after Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties last year. Montgomery is now in Houston, vacating 14 carries inside the 5-yard line (Gibbs had nine) and freeing up the goal-line role for Gibbs. That’s a highly valuable change considering the Lions project for the third-most points in football in betting markets right now. Isiah Pacheco will back up Gibbs, but it sounds like he’s closer to splitting the backup role with Sione Vaki than he is to pushing Gibbs for legitimate work.
The second overall pick is a tight battle: We have Bijan Robinson there in half-PPR formats right now, but Ja’Marr Chase and Puka Nacua warrant consideration as well in full-PPR leagues. Bijan was second among all running backs in targets last season (103). Like Gibbs, Robinson should have a firmer grasp of goal-line work in 2026 after Tyler Allgeier signed with the Cardinals in free agency. Allgeier matched Bijan with seven carries inside the 5 in 2025. Atlanta signed big-bodied Brian Robinson Jr. to be the team’s RB2, but Bijan is simply in another atmosphere as a talent, and the new coaching staff (Kevin Stefanski is the new head coach) likely turns to Bijan in goal-line situations. But the Falcons’ offense is levels below Detroit’s, capping Bijan at 1.02 in half-PPR drafts.
Ja’Marr Chase has led the NFL in targets in back-to-back years. Efficiency was a struggle in 2025 (career-low 7.6 yards per target) with Joe Burrow missing the entire middle portion of the season after an early turf toe injury, but the Bengals’ star quarterback is back and healthy ahead of the 2026 campaign. Chase has an argument for the best real-life WR in football, and he plays on an offense that has ranked top five in Pass Rate Over Expectation in each of the last three years. If Burrow stays healthy, Chase should smash.
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