Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 1

Up In Pace | Slow-Paced Slogs | No-Huddle Notes

Welcome to the Week 1 edition of Snaps & Pace — back-to-back winner of the FSWA’s Best Football Series — where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, while identifying main-slate matchups that will — and will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

It is always advisable to know what you don’t know, but it’s especially true for Week 1 of an NFL season. Not often are we surrounded by so many confidently wrong opinions. The tricky part, clearly, is identifying them before they correct.

From a pace perspective, there are always factors to be assured of. We’re pretty damn sure the Kellen Moore Saints and Dak Prescott Cowboys will again play fast. The Bengals are going to pass and, for as long as possible, the Dolphins will run — and Aaron Rodgers is going to run his mouth until play clocks kiss zero at the snap.

Week 1 is the perfect opportunity to challenge our assumptions and zig while others zag. We have collectively constructed six months’ worth of priors and, until proven plainly wrong on the field, they’ll get ridden harder than trailer-park Jed York. If we aren’t especially sure of a projection, it’s at least worth considering it’s wrong.

We are back, finally. There’s no better time of year to lean into what’s known, question widely held assumptions, and finish up with a gaggle of questions that Week 1 will begin answering. It’s been an interminable offseason — so let’s dive in.

“Situation neutral” is meant to provide context and refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half). Neutral Pace (average play-clock seconds used), Neutral Pace Over Expected (POE), and Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) are based on neutral game script and are provided by our data science team.

Up In Pace

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Projected for only the fifth-most points on the main slate, this divisional matchup features a traditionally slow offense and one that uncharacteristically crawled, and poorly, last season. Green Bay has finished dead last in neutral seconds per snap more often during HC Matt LaFleur’s seven-year tenure (three times) than above 25th (once). Their games almost always lack volume, and the Packers have consistently skewed run-heavy. That should change, especially with hammer back Josh Jacobs on the Commissioner’s Exempt List, a currently suspect defense, and a finally condensed wide receiver rotation. The working theory is that looser game scripts, more throwing, and fewer time-sucking substitutions will increase offensive pace. Sounds great on paper, anyway.

The Vikings enter 2026 from the opposite direction, having traditionally been a fast offense. That is, until last year and J.J. McCarthy happened. Minnesota dropped from 11th in neutral seconds per snap to 21st. Their PROE dipped from third highest (+3.5%) to 14th (-1.2%), and the no-huddle rate fell from ninth to 21st. Vikings games went from averaging the sixth-most combined snaps to the 31st. Their defense took steps forward and, with the offense cratering, Minnesota’s contests yielded the third-fewest combined points (39.8). That defense should be formidable again, but it’s been a boom-or-bust blitz-heavy unit under Brian Flores. In the right back-and-forth game environment — especially played indoors — that volatility can help spawn fantasy-friendly chaos. In this first NFC North meeting, with Kevin O’Connell sending McCarthy to the glue factory in favor of Kyler Murray, there’s a strong chance that’s exactly what we get.

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions