Welcome to the Week 11 edition of Snaps & Pace, where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, with the goal of identifying which matchups will — and which will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.
With the only three late-afternoon games also the three most likely matchups to be paced up (get well soon, Kyler), setting DFS lineups with an eye toward maintaining late-swap flexibility is a good idea. The early/late divide is accentuated by a large number of high-ceiling fantasy options in action after 4pm, and the 1pm slate is riddled with ugly matchups. It’s always smart to listen to the discerning GPP discourse of our Drew Dinkmeyer and Mike Leone — but especially so this week.
As always, “situation neutral” is meant to provide context, refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half), and is derived via the intrepid RotoViz Pace Tool.
Up In Pace
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs
If you need help figuring out that this is the premiere fantasy matchup of the week, it may be time to find another hobby. Perhaps competitive Candyland is more your speed. Both the Cowboys (first) and the Chiefs (third) operate at a top-three situation-neutral offensive pace. Cowboys games average the eighth-most combined plays, and Chiefs games rank second. Their contests average the second-most and fifth-most total points per game, respectively.
The Cowboys shade slightly run-heavy during neutral game scripts (45%; 13th), but face the ninth-highest pass rate (61%). The Chiefs throw at the league’s ninth-highest rate during close games (62%), and it has increased over the last month (66%; seventh). Considering this matchup projects to remain tight (KC -2.5), the potential for a back-and-forth track meet is high. The relatively wide target distribution among Cowboys pass-catchers and Chiefs ancillary receivers is a complicating factor, but elevated play volume enables us to throw fantasy darts in nearly any direction.
Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders
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