Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beaten at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
IMPORTANT: The lines for the bets you see below will almost certainly be gone. In order to get the lines as we release them, you must be subscribed to our Props Package and be connected to our subscriber-only Telegram channel.
Levitan’s Published Player Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Record: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL In-Season Record: 55-34, +$1,907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Record: 111-82, +$1,817
2021 NFL In-Season Record: 216-118: +$8,572
2021-22 NBA In-Season Record: 751-495, +$20,348
2022 NFL In-Season Record: 175-136, +$2,191 (through Week 10)
2022 NBA In-Season Record: 143-97, +$3,574 (through November 15)
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop.
1. Andy Dalton pass yards
Line: 219.5 yards
Mean Projection: 211.7 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: November 16, 8:13pm ET
Notes: Dalton has attempted more than 32 pass attempts just once this season, and we think there’s some systemic risk to the New Orleans offense this week. They could potentially be down three starting offensive linemen and have multiple key offensive pieces already on IR. Jameis Winston is also lurking.
2. Lamar Jackson passing yards
Line: 180.5 yards
Mean Projection: 205.2
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: November 17, 8:21am ET
Notes: We are currently projecting Mark Andrews out and still have a large over on this number.
3. Baker Mayfield interceptions
Line: 0.5 interceptions
Mean Projection: 0.9 interceptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+175)
Date: November 17, 8:20am ET
Notes: This prop has hit historically closer to 50% of the time based on our projections and Mayfield himself.
4. Cody Hollister receiving yards
Line: 0.5 yards
Mean Projection: 4.5 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-130)
Date: November 17, 1:53pm ET
Notes: Hollister typically runs 3-5 routes when all of Robert Woods, Treylon Burks, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine are healthy.
5. Lamar Jackson passing touchdowns
Line: 1.5 touchdowns
Mean Projection: 1.8 touchdowns
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+155)
Date: November 18, 8:13am ET
Notes: Jackson has a 6.3% touchdown rate for his career including 6.2% in 2022.
6. TJ Hockenson receiving yards
Line: 40.5 yards
Mean Projection: 55.9 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: November 18, 8:42am ET
Notes: Hock has seen 19 targets in his two games with Minnesota. This contest with Dallas projects to be high in pace per Pat Thorman.
7. Kirk Cousins passing yards
Line: 254.5 yards
Mean Projection: 284.4 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-120)
Date: November 18, 9:04am ET
Notes: Cousins is 6-3 against this number on the year, and has the aforementioned pace boost.
8. Jacoby Brissett passing yards
Line: 201.5 yards
Mean Projection: 230.2
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: November 18, 1:34pm ET
Notes: Brissett faces off against a tough Bills defense, but it’s in a dome and he has only gone under once all year.
9. Curtis Samuel receiving yards
Line: 40.5 yards
Mean Projection: 36.2 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: November 18, 1:48pm ET
Notes: Samuel’s target share has tanked since Taylor Heinicke took over quarterbacking duties.
10. Van Jefferson receiving yards
Line: 43.5 yards
Mean Projection: 39.1 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: November 18, 4:04pm ET
Notes: Even with Cooper Kupp out, we’re not expecting a big role change for Van Jeff. Look for Allen Robinson and Ben Skowronek to fill the slot role Kupp had.
11. D’Onta Foreman rushing yards
Line: 50.5 yards
Mean Projection: 66.0 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: November 18, 4:18pm ET
Notes: We expect the Panthers to stay committed to the run even if the game gets away from them a little bit. And Foreman has been an elite asset, easily holding off Chuba Hubbard for the lion’s share of rushing work.
12. David Montgomery carries
Line: 15.5 carries
Mean Projection: 19.1 carries
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-120)
Date: November 18, 6:44pm ET
Notes: With Khalil Herbert sidelined, we expect David Montgomery to have a massive stranglehold on the backfield ahead of Trestan Ebner.
13. Matt Ryan passing yards
Line: 222.5 yards
Mean Projection: 244.3 yards
Book: Fanduel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: November 18, 8:00pm ET
Notes: Passing yards has been our best market so far this season. Expecting Ryan to be forced into more throws than the market expects.
14. Melvin Gordon receptions
Line: 1.5 catches
Mean Projection: 2.5 catches
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-125)
Date: November 18, 11:27pm ET
Notes: Melvin ran 24 routes last week and his targets per route run remains high. We feel solid about the projection here.
15. Dalvin Cook receptions
Line: 2.5 catches
Mean Projection: 3.6 catches
Book: Kambi (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-103)
Date: November 19, 1:37pm ET
Notes: Cook’s routes continue to trend in an upward direction. We’re betting on that to continue.
16. Dak Prescott completions
Line: 21.5 completions
Mean Projection: 23.7 completions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-110)
Date: November 19, 2:28pm ET
Notes: This game is in Thorman’s “Up in Pace” section, so we’re expecting plenty of offensive plays on both sides. The Vikings have allowed the 7th-highest completion percentage to opposing QBs this season, so we’re choosing to attack Dak overs through efficiency on his attempts.
17. Rhamondre Stevenson rushing attempts
Line: 16.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 14.6 attempts
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-136)
Date: November 19, 3:20pm ET
Notes: We’re expecting Damien Harris to work in plenty on early downs, taking away some rushing attempts from Big Mon.
18. Baker Mayfield passing yards
Line: 195.5 yards
Mean Projection: 189.6 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-113)
Date: November 19, 3:36pm ET
Notes: Mayfield has struggled mightily this season and the Panthers have very limited weapons outside of DJ Moore.
19. Jamaal Williams receptions
Line: 1.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 1.0 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-130)
Date: November 19, 8:47pm ET
Notes: Williams is the RB1 for the Lions right now, but he’s splitting time with Justin Jackson on early downs and ceding late downs to D’Andre Swift.
20. Chuba Hubbard rushing yards
Line: 20.5 yards
Mean Projection: 14.9 yards
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: November 20, 8:52pm ET
Notes: D’Onta Foreman has seized the RB1 gig in Carolina and Hubbard hasn’t even completely marginalized Raheem Blackshear.
21. Logan Thomas receptions
Line: 1.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 2.5 receptions
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-139)
Date: November 20, 8:52pm ET
Notes: Thomas ran 26 routes on 33 Taylor Heinicke dropbacks last week.
22. Tyler Allgeier carries
Line: 8.5 carries
Mean Projection: 9.9 carries
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+112)
Date: November 20, 9:26am ET
Notes: Allgeier is firmly second in a very run-heavy Falcons attack.
23. A.J. Brown receptions
Line: 4.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 5.7 receptions
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-132)
Date: November 20, 9:38am ET
Notes: A.J. Brown is the established alpha in Philly’s passing offense and could see a volume bump with no Dallas Goedert.
24. Cordarrelle Patterson carries
Line: 10.5 carries
Mean Projection: 11.9 carries
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-102)
Date: November 20, 10:09am ET
Notes: The Falcons want to pound the rock and Patterson is clearly RB1.
25. Michael Carter rushing yards
Line: 44.5 yards
Mean Projection: 41.4 yards
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: November 20, 10:25am ET
Notes: Carter had fewer carries than James Robinson in the Jets’ last game and Robinson could have widened that gap during the bye.
26. Keenan Allen receiving yards
Line: 32.5 yards
Mean Projection: 47.7 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-110)
Date: November 20, 5:21m ET
Notes: It’s Allen’s first game back from injury and reports indicate he will play 30-35 snaps, most of which you’d expect to be in passing situations. This is roughly half of a fully healthy Keenan Allen number.
