For the awards column this season I will be using odds from widely available sports books at DraftKings, FanDuel, Fox Bet, MGM, and Caesars. The odds listed next to each candidate are the best odds among those options. For this pre-opening day edition I’ll be using the findings of my previous column, NFL Awards: Who Wins and Why, to explain how I view a variety of awards candidates heading into the 2020 season.
MVP
Before we get into exploring specific MVP options, let’s first look at what we are generally looking to bet on based off recent patterns and trends:
— We want a quarterback whose team is reasonably capable of winning 12 games.
— More times than not, we are looking for the quarterback of one of the two No. 1 seeds.
— We want a QB capable of having a historically significant season.
— We are looking for a QB that can be a leader in touchdowns, which means we are looking for the QB of one of the league’s best offenses.
— We are looking for a QB capable of finishing within the top three in both rating and QBR.
— Betting on a long shot is not unreasonable for the MVP award.
— The overwhelming majority of recent MVPs were first-round picks.
— Standard numbers such as passing yards, rushing yards, completion percentage, or interception ratio are less important factors than you might think.
MVP Favorites
Patrick Mahomes (+400 DraftKings, MGM, Caesars): The Chiefs start off the season vs Houston in the Thursday Night opener, then visit the Chargers, then head to the Ravens for Monday Night Football, then host the Patriots. If the Chiefs get out of that stretch undefeated, there is a very real chance that this is the best price you’ll be able to get Mahomes all season.
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