Last updated: October 1st at 8:55am ET
Team Totals: Bears 23, Raiders 18
The 3-1 Bears head to London with Chase Daniel at quarterback after Mitchell Trubisky suffered his second left-shoulder injury in as many seasons. A scrappy, short-area passer with intense knowledge of Matt Nagy’s offense having spent five of the last six years together in Philadelphia and Chicago, Daniel managed QB16 and QB19 fantasy results in two road-game spot starts against the Lions and Giants last season and is start-able in two-QB-leagues in this plus draw. Oakland has allowed the NFL’s fourth-most touchdown passes (9) and ranks second to last in sacks (5). … Even as David Montgomery’s rushing efficiency continues to underwhelm (3.45 YPC), his ascending usage foreshadows an imminent spiked week with 16-plus touches in three straight games and a career-high 24 in last week’s win over the Vikings. He’s also drawn 11 targets over the last three weeks. Favored by five against a Raiders defense that won’t have early-season difference maker Vontaze Burfict (suspension), Montgomery is a solid RB2 with breakout-game potential. … Tarik Cohen seemed headed for more involvement than usual when he beat Vikings LB Anthony Barr for last week’s first-quarter ten-yard touchdown catch, but Cohen finished with eight touches or fewer for the fourth straight game. Still somewhat intriguing from a contrarian angle, Cohen was targeted by Daniel more than any other Bears pass catcher last season, securing 19 of Daniel’s 22 throws for 201 yards and a touchdown. Cohen’s game fits Daniel’s short-distance style. … Mike Davis is strictly a handcuff for Montgomery; Davis has played one snap over the last two weeks.
Daniel’s Week 4 target distribution: Allen Robinson 7; Cohen 5; Javon Wims 5; Montgomery and Trey Burton 4; Anthony Miller and Adam Shaheen 2; Cordarrelle Patterson 0. … Robinson caught all seven of Daniel’s targets for 77 yards and led Chicago in Air Yards (69) against the Vikings. The Raiders have surrendered at- or above-expectation wide receiver stat lines of 6/172/2 (Demarcus Robinson), 7/120/0 (Courtland Sutton), 5/86/1 (Emmanuel Sanders), 4/72/0 (Zach Pascal), 4/61/1 (Mecole Hardman), and Adam Thielen (3/55/1). Robinson’s big-play potential may be curbed by Daniel’s weak arm, but his PPR value should be stabilized by Daniel’s accuracy upgrade on Trubisky. … Preseason star Wims played 94% of Chicago’s Week 4 snaps, running more routes (33) than slot man Miller (26) and finishing second on the team in Air Yards (60). Wims’ Week 5 playing time is contingent on Taylor Gabriel’s (concussion) health. … Including playoffs, Miller has failed to clear 50 yards in 19-of-20 career games. … Burton has topped 40 yards in 3-of-19 games with the Bears and has one touchdown over his last 11 appearances.
Derek Carr heads to London with weakling QB21 > QB28 > QB20 > QB17 fantasy results under his belt facing a shutdown Bears defense that held its first four opponents to QB23 (Aaron Rodgers), QB17 (Joe Flacco), QB21 (Case Keenum), and QB25 (Kirk Cousins) finishes. Carr is a low-end two-quarterback-league play. … Even without critical DTs Akiem Hicks (knee) and Bilal Nichols (arm) and 2018 first-round ILB Roquan Smith (personal), Chicago put Week 4 clamps on now-former NFL rushing leader Dalvin Cook (14/35/1) and has held enemy backs to 77/235/1 (3.05 YPC) rushing on the year. Despite Jon Gruden’s promises that Josh Jacobs’ passing-game involvement would increase, the Raiders’ rookie lead back drew two targets and ran one more route (13) than Jalen Richard (12) in last Sunday’s win over the Colts. Jacobs is a recommended sell with a forthcoming slate (vs. CHI, @ GB, @ HOU, vs. DET, vs. LAC) that forewarns of Oakland facing a worrisome combination of difficult matchups and negative scripts.
Carr’s Weeks 1-4 target distribution: Darren Waller 37; Tyrell Williams 24; Hunter Renfrow 18; Richard and Foster Moreau 7; Jacobs, DeAndre Washington, J.J. Nelson, and Derek Carrier 5; Keelan Doss 1. … Even as Noah Fant (4/33/0), Jimmy Graham (3/30/1), Vernon Davis (2/30/0), and Kyle Rudolph (1/12/0) got little going against the Bears, Waller’s consistent volume keeps him mid-range TE1 playable every week. Waller is playing 93% of Oakland’s offensive snaps, has drawn seven or more targets in all four games, and ranks No. 7 among NFL tight ends in routes run (116). … Stefon Diggs (7/108/0), Emmanuel Sanders (11/98/1), Paul Richardson (8/83/1), and Terry McLaurin (6/70/1) showed over the last three weeks that Chicago’s biggest defensive vulnerability is its secondary, where slot CB Buster Skrine and RCB Prince Amukamara can be beat. Still, Williams has been living off touchdowns with end-zone trips in all four games but fewer than 50 yards in three straight. His TD streak likely to end this week, Williams is a fringe WR3 option in a matchup where the Raiders’ passing game as an entity figures to struggle. … Coming off a 3/30/1 receiving line against the Colts, Moreau is worth rostering in Dynasty leagues with Waller on a one-year deal. Only T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant logged higher SPARQ athleticism scores in this year’s tight end class, and Moreau has already earned a 41% snap share as a fourth-round rookie.
Score Prediction: Bears 20, Raiders 16