Last updated: October 10th at 2:58pm ET.
Team Totals: Jaguars 22.5, Saints 21.5
Fresh off spraying Tampa Bay’s lopsidedly pass-funnel defense for four touchdowns and just the fifth 300-yard game of his 32-start career, Teddy Bridgewater encounters a Jaguars defense that held three of its last four quarterbacks faced to fantasy results of QB20 or worse and ranks top seven in the NFL in both sacks (16) and QB hits (34). In a low-totaled road game, Bridgewater is likelier to revert to his pre-Week 5 QB30 > QB22 > QB27 ways than repeat last Sunday’s QB4 finish. He’s a two-quarterback-league play only. … Pummeled by Panthers backs for 321 total yards and four touchdownsin last week’s defeat, the Jaguars have generously yielded 108/610/5 (5.65 YPC) rushing to enemy backs. Sean Payton would be smart to “borrow” last week’s Christian McCaffrey blueprint when designing Alvin Kamara’s Week 6 usage. In a probable low-owned spot, Kamara is an exciting DFS-tournament play against the Jags. … Yet to reach double-digit touches in a 2019 game, Latavius Murray is entrenched as Kamara’s handcuff only.
Bridgewater’s 2019 target distribution: Michael Thomas 39; Kamara 23; Jared Cook 19; Ted Ginn 12; Josh Hill 9; Murray and Taysom Hill 4; Tre’Quan Smith 2. … Thomas’ drop-off from Drew Brees to Teddy has been nonexistent; he has an 82% catch rate and is averaging 9.7 yards per target with Bridgewater, both in line with his Brees efficiency marks. Emmanuel Sanders (5/104/0), Adam Humphries (6/93/0), D.J. Moore (6/91/0), Tajae Sharpe (2/70/0), Courtland Sutton (6/62/2), and DaeSean Hamilton (3/57/0) all beat box-score expectations against Jacksonville in the last three weeks. Like Kamara, Thomas is an excellent Week 6 DFS-tournament play. … Cook scored his first touchdown as a Saint last week but has yet to clear 45 yards and remains waiver-wire fodder in season-long leagues. … Ginn hasn’t topped 35 yards or five targets since Week 1. All Saints ancillary pass catchers should continue to be ignored.
Getting better by the week and most-certainly Jacksonville’s highest-upside option whenever Nick Foles (collarbone) returns – Foles’ target date isn’t until Week 11 – Gardner Minshew has logged QB13 > QB18 > QB15 > QB8 fantasy results through four starts, while New Orleans has yielded QB3 > QB9 > QB1 > QB24 > QB14 outcomes five weeks in. The Saints’ best two defensive performances occurred at home in the Superdome; they’re visiting the Jaguars and facing one of the NFL’s hottest-young quarterbacks this week. Minshew has exhibited a high-enough floor and ceiling for Week 6 streamer contention and belongs in DFS-tournament discussion, as well. … Leonard Fournette finally caught the positive end of touchdown variance in last week’s loss to Carolina, hitting third-quarter goal-line pay dirt and emerging with 137 total yards. His buy-low window slammed shut, Fournette has reestablished himself as the centerpiece of an ascending Jacksonville offense on chronological Weeks 1-5 touch counts of 17 > 19 > 21 > 31 > 27. Behind only Christian McCaffrey in snaps played among NFL backs, Fournette warrants legitimate every-week RB1 treatment and never commands enough ownership in DFS tournaments.
Minshew’s 2019 target distribution: Dede Westbrook 37; D.J. Chark 34; Fournette 28; Chris Conley 20; James O’Shaughnessy 19; Geoff Swaim 14; Marqise Lee 3; RyQuell Armstead 2; Keelan Cole 1. … This is a breakout spot for Westbrook, who runs 87% of his routes inside; teams targeting New Orleans in the slot are 30-of-41 (73%) for 410 yards (10.0 YPA) and three TDs, highlighted by Tyler Lockett (11/154/1), Chris Godwin (7/125/2), and Cooper Kupp (5/120/0). Particularly with Marshon Lattimore likely to chase Chark, Westbrook is a standout DFS play and should be locked into season-long lineups. … As Week 5 opponent Carolina mistakenly failed to assign top CB James Bradberry in shadow coverage to Chark, the Jaguars’ second-year breakout receiver went to town on Ross Cockrell, Javien Elliott, and Tre Boston for a career-best game (8/164/2). Lattimore chased Amari Cooper (5/48/0) and Mike Evans (0/0) in the last two weeks, yet it’s fair to wonder if Chark has commanded Amari- and Evans-level respect. Averaging 97.0 yards and a touchdown per game, Chark has earned every-week WR2 treatment in season-long leagues regardless of opponent. Chark ranks No. 9 in the NFL in Air Yards (430) during Minshew’s four starts. He also has the NFL’s second-highest passer rating when targeted in zone coverage (137.5), while New Orleans plays zone at a 79.4% clip (Sports Info Solutions). … Conley has 73 scoreless yards on ten targets over the last three weeks. … The Jags will turn to some combination of Swaim and rookie Josh Oliver after O’Shaughnessy’s (ACL) loss.
Score Prediction: Jaguars 23, Saints 17