The NFL legal tampering window opened on Monday morning, and with it came a flurry of free-agent signings. Below, we break down whose fantasy value rose and whose fell in free agency.
List of Jack Miller’s Fantasy Fallout Articles:
Jerry Jeudy Traded to Cleveland
Devin Singletary Joins the Giants
Bengals Add Zack Moss, Cut Joe Mixon
Packers Surprise with Addition of Josh Jacobs
Jaguars Add Gabe Davis to WR Room
Bears Add New RB1 in D’Andre Swift
Saquon Crosses Divisional Lines, Signs with Eagles
Russell Wilson to Sign with the Steelers
Titans Sign Tony Pollard
Austin Ekeler Heads to Washington
Is Kirk Cousins the Answer for Atlanta?
Aaron Jones Finds New Home in Minnesota
Joe Mixon Traded to Houston
Derrick Henry Signs with Baltimore
Steelers Send Diontae Johnson to Carolina
Calvin Ridley Chooses the Titans
Bears Trade for Keenan Allen
Chiefs Add Marquise Brown
Mike Williams Joins the Jets
Texans Acquire Stefon Diggs
WINNERS
- Drake London and Kyle Pitts — Arthur Smith is gone, replaced by Raheem Morris (and new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson). Desmond Ridder is no longer the Falcons’ QB1, replaced by Kirk Cousins. Both of those developments are a huge upgrade for Falcons pass catchers, namely London and Pitts. London has commanded at least a 22.4% target share in each of his two NFL seasons while posting above-average per-target efficiency. We know Pitts has the athletic tools to succeed, but the former fourth overall pick has been let down by coaching and poor QB play. With Cousins under center and Robinson calling the shots, London and Pitts (and Bijan Robinson) should eat.
- Josh Jacobs — Jacobs signed a four-year, $48 million deal with Green Bay, who promptly cut Aaron Jones after Jacobs agreed to terms. With A.J. Dillon also a free agent, Jacobs should have the backfield to himself alongside one of the most exciting young quarterbacks in the league in Jordan Love. With another offseason for Love to develop, the Packers’ offense could be scary in 2024 — and that bodes well for their new workhorse running back.
- Marquise Brown – Brown will challenge Rashee Rice for the WR1 role in Kansas City and should see his efficiency skyrocket after three straight years under seven yards per target. This is the perfect landing spot for him, and his speed means he has week-winning upside every game.
- Derrick Henry — Henry takes over the RB1 job in Baltimore, as prophesied by many. Gus Edwards tied for the league lead in carries inside the five-yard line (19) in this spot last year to go along with 13 rushing scores. Henry likely won’t contribute much as a pass-catcher, but this might be the most efficient per-carry fantasy season of his career.
- Greg Dortch – With Rondale Moore in Atlanta, Dortch has a clear runway to being the WR3, if not WR2 by target share, for the Cardinals this season. Arizona will likely add a WR in the draft, but that still leaves a ton of targets behind a rookie WR and Trey McBride. Dortch has shown more target-earning ability than Michael Wilson.
- George Pickens – Pickens had a 28.6% target share in four games without Diontae Johnson last season. Johnson’s departure means he is the unquestioned WR1 for Russell Wilson, although the Steelers will certainly add more WR help considering their WR2 is currently Calvin Austin. Still, Pickens should breeze to triple-digit targets, and we know he’s capable of making big plays any time the ball is thrown his way.
- Christian Kirk and Evan Engram — With Calvin Ridley gone and Gabe Davis taking his spot, Kirk and Engram should feast underneath while Davis’ deep speed prevents defenses from keying in too much on them.
- Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston – Johnston was awful as a rookie, but with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both gone, he may get another opportunity to prove himself as an NFL-caliber wideout. The Chargers will add WR help, but Palmer is currently the unquestioned WR1 for Justin Herbert. Even once they add someone, he should be relevant as a starting wideout for a great quarterback.
- Curtis Samuel – Samuel goes from a rookie QB and the WR2/3 in Washington to potentially being Josh Allen‘s WR2 right from the get-go. He’ll have to fend off Khalil Shakir for that role, but the Bills gave him a three-year deal and Samuel has shown more in his career than Shakir.
- Chase Brown and Zack Moss — The Bengals’ decision to cut Mixon displays faith in the former Illini Brown, while Moss should be the favorite to lead the backfield in carries and goal-line work alongside one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
- Zamir White — The Raiders may bring in RB competition, but the general expectation was that Jacobs would be back and White would be a pure contingent upside play. Jacobs’ exit at least opens the door for a real role for White, although he’ll have to survive the rest of free agency and the draft.
- Diontae Johnson – Johnson’s efficiency might be abhorrent with Bryce Young throwing him the ball, but 33-year-old Adam Thielen just caught 100 balls, admittedly under a different coaching staff. Still, Johnson should get all the looks he can handle as the clear top dog in this Panthers’ passing offense.
- Will Levis – With Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins, Levis has the weapons necessary to post a solid QB2 season. Now it simply comes down to whether he’s good enough.
- Gus Edwards — The Chargers’ first two moves were to sign Edwards and blocking TE Will Dissly. They want to run the ball under Jim Harbaugh and Edwards has a direct path to a goal-line role on a good offense. There’s still plenty of time for LAC to add more running-back help though.
- Devin Singletary — Singletary excelled down the stretch for the Texans last year and was rewarded with the likely RB1 job for the Giants, which is good for his projectable rushing volume at least. New York could also still bring in competition for Singletary through free agency or the draft, especially considering the veteran has consistently graded as a below-average pass catcher.
- Saquon Barkley — After a white-hot start to his career, inefficiency and injuries have plagued him over the past few seasons. A change of scenery could be just what he needs, and there aren’t many better landing spots than Philadelphia, which still boasts an elite offensive line despite the retirement of Jason Kelce. Rushing TDs could be a concern with Jalen Hurts‘ tush push siphoning all the carries in tight, but Barkley getting all the work in an efficient rushing offense is still a net positive.
LOSERS
- Justin Fields — Fields will now back up Russell Wilson.
- Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson — Chicago signed D’Andre Swift to a three-year, $24 million deal as soon as the legal tampering period started. Swift’s pass-catching ability makes this a death blow for Johnson, who was already at a disadvantage as a Day 3 pick with one year of experience, while Herbert’s best-case scenario is forcing a carries split with Swift.
- Tyjae Spears — Spears was being drafted in Round 6 on Underdog and now likely falls to RB2 on the depth chart behind Tony Pollard, under a new regime with no ties to him that immediately added another RB. He’s still a dangerous pass catcher with a path to a three-down role (if Pollard gets hurt), but the road to success is murkier for him with Pollard in the fold.
- Keenan Allen – Allen goes from the WR1 for Justin Herbert to the likely WR2 for Caleb Williams.
- Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison — Cousins’ departure means the Vikings will likely be stuck with a rookie QB or Sam Darnold, which is bad news for one of the league’s best WR duos. Jefferson falls out of the first tier of WRs through no fault of his own, while Addison’s path to a true Year 2 breakout just got tougher. T.J. Hockenson‘s stock also falls, although his injury is an even bigger concern than the QB situation.
- Ty Chandler — Minnesota wasted no time adding Aaron Jones after he was cut by the Packers. Kevin O’Connell was Chandler’s No. 1 hype man at the combine, but he’ll now open the season as the RB2 behind Jones for the Vikings. He could still wind up in a lucrative fantasy role if Jones gets hurt or underperforms (he is 29 years old), but Chandler truthers likely wanted weaker competition for the starting role.
- DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley – Hopkins – if he remains on the Titans – and Ridley may end up cannibalizing each other’s targets on a poor passing offense. Of course, a Levis breakout could mean both players feast, but the Kentucky product didn’t show enough as a rookie to believe just yet that two big-name WRs can be fantasy-relevant with him under center.
- Austin Ekeler — Ekeler has a clear path to targets in Washington, but he earned just a two-year, $11.4 million deal in free agency. That’s in the same neighborhood as Devin Singletary — not the type of company we are used to seeing Ekeler with for fantasy purposes.
