Dynasty Outlook
March 19
Keon Coleman is our WR7 for rookie drafts and checks in as WR38 in our overall dynasty ranks. He is a bit of a tricky evaluation after producing on par with Jayden Reed, but then failing to out-gain Johnny Wilson, who the scouts seem to like far less. The comps for him are also not great. With that said, he was dominant in games where he was not paired with an NFL receiver, and he did not fully commit to football until 2022 (he was previously a member of Michigan State’s basketball team). There is some developmental upside here, and the expected draft capital should net Coleman plenty of chances.
Profile Summary
Coleman has maybe the best highlight film of the entire class. With his basketball background, the number of “wow” catches in his arsenal is incredible. With that said, he is still fairly new to football, and may not be fully comfortable yet with the intricacies of playing WR. Coleman is someone who can come right into the league and be a red-zone threat for an offense. One other note worth making on his athletic profile: While Coleman tested slow in the 40, he had the best GPS speed of the WRs at the Combine. There is a bit of a Puka Nacua parallel there.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/23) — 20.6
Experience — 3 years
Height — 75.25 inches
Weight — 213 pounds
Hand — 9.38 inches
Arm — 32.13 inches
Forty — 4.61 seconds
Vert — 38 inches
Broad — 127 inches
By the Numbers
Coleman started his career as part of a Michigan State team that already had Jayden Reed. By his second season, he had already gotten to be toe-to-toe with the current Green Bay Packer. In 11 games together in 2022:
Reed: 55 receptions, 636 yards, 5 TDs
Coleman: 49 receptions, 682 yards, 5 TDs
Competing so closely with a WR we already believe to be fairly good while also being younger than him is a great start to the profile. After transferring to Florida State, he struggled to compete as well with Johnny Wilson.
Wilson: 41 receptions, 617 yards, 2 TDs
Coleman: 34 receptions, 452 yards, 8 TDs
It is worth noting that Coleman still managed to score a ton of TDs even while being out-gained by Wilson. He also played in three games between 2022 and 2023 without Reed or Wilson, and he was absolutely dominant in those contests:
2023 against Syracuse: 9/140/1
2023 against Wake Forest: 7/66/2
2022 against Washington: 9/116/2
This gives some insight as to what he could potentially have done without so much NFL competition.
What the Scouts are Saying
Lance Zierlein compares Coleman to Drake London:
Above-the-rim artist with circus catches resembling a scene from the tents of Cirque du Soleil. Coleman has excellent size and ball skills. He’s not sudden and doesn’t have great speed, so beating press and creating breathing room against tight man coverages will depend on his ability to improve as a route runner. The former star basketball player has a rebounder’s blend of extension and timing to give jump-ball defenders the blues. He’s big and strong with soft hands, but he can play with a little more aggression in claiming his deep-ball space and getting after it as a run blocker. Coleman might lack the athletic traits to be a well-rounded WR2. Instead, keep an eye on him as a big slot receiver who can be a red-zone specialist.
Daniel Jeremiah notes Coleman’s ability to make contested catches and score TDs:
A big, physical wideout with average play speed, Coleman has the versatility to play inside and outside. He is a smooth and fluid route runner with some nuance to his game. He understands how to use his body to keep defenders on his back and attack the ball in front of his frame. He doesn’t have ideal vertical speed, but he can play above the rim and make contested catches. He also might have the best highlight reel in this draft class, with one-handed wow catches littered throughout his tape. After the catch, he is competitive to fight for extra yards and will occasionally hurdle defenders. He’s an excellent athlete. Overall, Coleman lacks ideal speed to separate, but he makes a lot of big plays in crowded environments and should be a red-zone menace at the next level.
Dane Brugler illuminates Coleman’s basketball background:
After putting himself on the NFL radar as a two-sport athlete at Michigan State, Coleman transferred to Tallahassee in 2023 and led the Seminoles in receiving — and led the nation in “he did what?!?” catches.
Thanks to his basketball background, he “big brothers” cornerbacks up and down the field with size, strength, and athleticism. But what really separates him is his dominance when the ball is in the air. Not only can he overpower defenders at the catch point, but he also makes leaping, acrobatic stabs appear routine with rare body control and an extraordinary catch radius.
Draft Projection
Coleman has an expected draft position of 30.7 on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Coleman 35th overall. Neither Jeremiah nor Brugler have Coleman in their first-round mocks as of now. Coleman seems to have a chance to be selected late on Day 1, but he will likely come off the board early on Day 2.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable players in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
The comps here tell us that the contested-catch specialists don’t always make the best pros. Tee Higgins is the only true hit from this group. Courtland Sutton had 1,000 yards in his second season, but he has not eclipsed even 850 yards since. Josh Palmer has been productive in a reserve role, and may step into a starting spot in 2024.
The rest of these comps — despite having mostly solid draft capital — never found any modicum of success at the NFL level. Of course, the comps are only one piece of the puzzle, but they provide for us a terribly pessimistic view of Coleman.
