Large-Field GPP Breakdown: BMW Championship

It was a very interesting week in the PGA streets, as 40+ year-old Lucas Glover somehow took down all of the best PGA Tour players in the world en route to a win at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Not only was this an unexpected win, but combine it with his win at the Wyndham last week, and we are talking about one of the most ridiculous two-week stretches for a player in a long time. Glover entered the Wyndham ranked in the 100s, basically hoping he could just make the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Now, he has a top-five ranking in the playoffs with a great chance to make some noise at the Tour Championship next week. Totally ridiculous. Congrats to all of you that played Glover last week and profited. I guess you can win two weeks in a row! This week, we’ll be reduced to a 50-player field for the BMW Championship, and I’ll be sure to go through some ownership guidelines when I get to those sections. But first, let’s take a look at my week that was.

 

FedEx St. Jude Championship – Recap

What a heartbreaker of a week for me. There was a point late Sunday where I sat in second in the Sand Trap (flagship GPP) with a similar amount of PHR to everyone around me other than Discord member jfreshpicks, who had a similar but slightly different team than mine. The worst part about it was the fact that I had Jordan Spieth and Viktor Hovland in my lineup, who both got wet on the 18th, pushing me out of contention while also giving me a losing week in the Trap. Screenshot below:

 

 

Brutal stuff. The GPP life strikes again, pushing me to -$1,700 in realized net loss. Here was my portfolio:

• 30% Spieth, Hovland, Scheffler, Si Woo Kim (Flag plant)
• Full faded Rahm, Rory, Cantlay. This didn’t work out for me.

 

I’m really happy with the way I’ve been playing over the past couple of weeks, mixing in some IKBs while validating the projections in my own process. I believe I’m catching some more industry mistakes while also guiding players on optimal strategies. We shall see if it works out this weekend. First, let’s take a look at the winning lineup given this new field size.

• It had a cumulative ownership of 67%, within the cumulative ownership range I was targeting in my article prior to the tournament. I had advised that this 70-person tourney shouldn’t have too much difference from a full-style cut event, and it feels like I was correct. 
• The lineup used a salary of $49,900, just below the $50K budget.

 

BMW Championship – Preview

This week at the BMW, only the top 50 have advanced and will compete in the tournament. This is a lot different than last year, where we had 70 players that made the cut versus the 50-person field we see today. This will undoubtedly cause us to have different ownership scenarios, and I advise you to listen in here as it could make a difference in your lineup building. If you remember from last week’s article, I posted some screenshots of past winners at the Sentry TOC in large-field contests, which is a ~40-person tournament. I don’t expect this 50-man field to be much different than that. Here are the cumulative ownership of the past THREE winners at the Sentry TOC: