I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
This felt like an old-school week on DraftKings: Jam in the three best running back plays, find a cheap QB/TE, shoot for upside at WR, and pray. I’m not surprised we’ve gotten to this point given the way this season has gone. Almost every good WR is hurt, almost no RBs are hurt, and teams are playing more run-heavy than we’ve seen in recent years.
Note: Unless stated otherwise, the discussion below is about DraftKings.
MY MUST PLAYS
* In Christian McCaffrey’s 2024 debut last week, he played on 56-of-64 snaps. I did think there’s some efficiency downside considering CMC missed two months of the season, but that didn’t matter at just $8300. This is a spot we’ve happily played $9500 for as recently as last season – plus George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk were out. It’s very hard to replicate CMC’s pass-game plus goal-line role at this price.
* We know the story by now on Alvin Kamara. He has an absurd pass-game role with checkdown artist Derek Carr, and without Chris Olave (head) plus Rashid Shaheed (knee). Kamara also has an elite rushing role with Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller out. I thought Kamara was a bit weaker than McCaffrey, but not by much.
* De’Von Achane has taken over as the Dolphins’ No. 2 WR, seeing 35 targets in Tua Tagovailoa’s four starts. He’d also iced Raheem Mostert as the primary running back. Now comes a home game against the Raiders at $7200. On full-PPR DraftKings, I was never fading the pass-catching role plus slate-breaking ability in run game.
* On Friday, I thought it was very close between Cedric Tillman and Jauan Jennings, both priced at $5300. But once George Kittle (hamstring) was ruled out, Jennings became a lock. We knew he’d have an every-down role in the Brandon Aiyuk role at just $5300. And Jennings is an example of a player getting better during his NFL career – priors need to allow room for a player like him to get better, as we’ve seen him play at a really high level all season.
MY WANT PLAYS
* Other than Jauan Jennings, I didn’t think there were any great plays at WR. We only had four WRs on the entire DK slate with a positive salary-adjusted value in our projections. So it was necessary to punt off a WR spot, and I was fine doing that. Given that Kayshon Boutte had run 100% of the routes the last two weeks, I liked the spot for Drake Maye, and he was just $3500… I thought Boutte was the best salary-saver at WR. That didn’t mean I was happy about playing him.
* On a looser slate, a $7300 Puka Nacua against the Patriots would have been a priority. But we had to save money at WR here in order to jam in the elite RB plays. It came down to Cedric Tillman ($5300) vs. Jakobi Meyers ($5600) for me. Playing Tillman allowed me to get to the tight end I preferred (see below), and I already had Jakobi on FanDuel.
* I had a Brock Purdy/Davis Allen team in for a bit. But once George Kittle was out and we reduced our Purdy projection, Jameis Winston was clearly ahead in salary-based value. And you don’t have to ask me twice to bet on Jameis’ hyper-aggressive throwing against a decimated Saints defense in the dome with Marshon Lattimore gone. You also don’t have to ask me twice to play cheap QB in cash, and Jameis was just $5500 – $1100 less than Purdy.
* By going down to Jameis, I was able to get off the ultra-thin Davis Allen (who we had for just 6.3 DK points). And by getting off Dolphins D/ST for Jets D/ST, I was able to fit in a tight end who is actually the focal point of his offense in Hunter Henry. Whereas Davis Allen and Dawson Knox were touchdown-or-bust bets, Henry has seen a team-best 18.4% target share on the season.
Week 11 Results
When I have four “musts”, I’m confident it’s going to be a good week. That’s because I know my opponents won’t consider them all locks. Certainly ran a bit hot to get the huge Jameis Winston game, and have Hunter Henry outscore Dawson Knox + Davis Allen combined. But I think this DraftKings cash team is the one I’d play every time if confronted with this slate again.
YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS
Week 1 DraftKings: 147.38 points, won 98.6% of head-to-heads
Week 2 DraftKings: 116.94 points, won 21.1% of head-to-heads
Week 3 DraftKings: 109.3 points, won 54.8% of head-to-heads
Week 4 DraftKings: 146.28 points, won 75.3% of head-to-heads
Week 5 DraftKings: 143.06 points, won 83.5% of head-to-heads
Week 6 DraftKings: 134.12 points, won 50.1% of head-to-heads
Week 7 DraftKings: 93.14 points, won 28.2% of head-to-heads
Week 8 DraftKings: 173.16 points, won 96.3% of head-to-heads
Week 9 DraftKings: 170.86 points, won 65.2% of head-to-heads
Week 10 DraftKings: 117.92 points, won 66.1% of head-to-heads
Week 11 DraftKings: 133.00 points, won 81.5% of head-to-heads
Week 1 FanDuel: Did not play
Week 2 FanDuel: 143.24 points, won 75.2% of head-to-heads
Week 3 FanDuel: 111.88 points, won 71.9% of head-to-heads
Week 4 FanDuel: 120.92 points, won 41.9% of head-to-heads
Week 5 FanDuel: 130.22 points, won 71.4% of head-to-heads
Week 6 FanDuel: 133.36 points, won 80.6% of head-to-heads
Week 7 FanDuel: 100.04 points, won 65.0% of head-to-heads
Week 8 FanDuel: 122.36 points, won 70.4% of head-to-heads
Week 9 FanDuel: 132.1 points, won 52.0% of head-to-heads
Week 10 FanDuel: 108.82 points, won 60.9% of head-to-heads
Week 11 FanDuel: 112.58 points, won 29.0% of head-to-heads
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties.
