With legal sports betting expanding across the USA and sportsbooks providing more reliable betting options, as well as there being an increased emphasis on expanding available player props markets, we’ve decided to upgrade our prop betting coverage this season.
We have assembled a team of skilled fantasy players and projections-oriented news grinders to source as many good bets as we possibly can throughout the NBA season. Due to the amount of time and resources we will put into our props package, our NBA props package will be $89.99/week during the NBA season.
Why We Think It’s Possible To Beat The Books
If you’re an ETR subscriber, you know how much time and effort our staff puts into our fantasy projections. Our analytics team is led by longtime DFS pros Mike Leone and Drew Dinkmeyer, who in addition to creating and managing projection systems for years, successfully deploy our system’s outputs in the highest-stakes fantasy contests in the world.
But projections are just a starting point. The NBA is a dynamic market that requires more than just following a quantitative projection system to win. To address this, Drew Dinkmeyer, who previously sourced bets mostly on his own, will be leading a small team of analysts to source prop bets we think have incorrect lines.
Overall, we’re confident in our combination of quantitative (our projection system) and qualitative (knowledge of betting markets, access to reliable news and information) analysis, particularly as we dedicate more resources to this effort. With that said, we cannot guarantee these results will continue, and we can guarantee that betting markets will continue to get more difficult.
ETR’s Published Player Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Record: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL In-Season Record: 55-34, +$1,907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Record: 111-82, +$1,817
2021 NFL In-Season Record: 216-118: +$8,572; 22.1% ROI
2021-22 NBA In-Season Record: 751-495: +$20,348; 14.0% ROI
2022-23 NFL In-Season Record: 308-222, +$5,860; 9.5% ROI
2022-23 NBA In-Season Record: 700-455, +$18,770; 13.9% ROI
2023-24 NFL In-Season Record: 253-225, +$267; 0.48% ROI
2023-24 NBA In-Season Record: 683-432, +$19,473; 14.73% ROI
2024-25 NFL In-Season Record: 228-158, +$5,969; 14.09% ROI
2024-25 NBA In-Season Record: 549-386, +$11,067; 10.13% ROI
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop.
ETR Props Offering
Our In-Season props content is pretty straightforward. You subscribe to our NBA Props Package, our props team sources as many prop bets as we can find and relays them to you via ETR’s Premium Discord channel and a private Telegram channel.
You will also receive access to an ETR NBA Props Discord channel which we expect will be a great place to discuss props with other enthusiasts. You will also receive access to premium discord channels labeled “NBA-INFO” where the team will drop news and information adding context to projections once they’ve been released in full-stat projections. Lastly, we will have a premium discord channel for props subscribers that includes “Unofficial Bets”. Unofficial bets are bets that fell just shy of our “official” criteria to release to subs. These may be bets that didn’t get enough votes from team members to be released as official, or bets that individual team members like more than projections, or bets that the team has liquidity concerns on such as lower limit categories, or one-off lines available. Unofficial bets will be dropped in the channel without warning and record keeping will be tracked in that channel.
Overall, we aim to make this product a combination of a learning resource, community, and actionable information.
IMPORTANT: Accessing our Discord Server and Telegram will be essential to maximizing your experience with our props package. If you do not want to use the Discord and Telegram apps on your phone to receive push notifications, we recommend keeping expectations very low about available lines. Lines will move quickly and you will need to be ready to act quickly in order to get the same or similar lines.
FAQ:
What is Telegram? Telegram is a simple chat service. You may download it for desktop or mobile here: https://telegram.org/.
How many props will I get per month? We are hoping to release at least 100 props per month. We were able to source about 900-1,300 props per year over each of the last three NBA seasons, but we aren’t certain we can sustain that type of volume. Keep in mind that not all props we find could be on a book you have access to in your state. We can not guarantee a certain number of props each week as we want to ensure quality over quantity.
What sports does this cover? NBA only.
What sportsbooks do you release props for? Our service is designed with regulated, US based sports books in mind. We understand the betting market is global and customers use a variety of books all over the world. We will reference prices to various books, though we have customers who place bets all over the world. We’ll do our best to provide value to as many customers as possible. We use FanDuel, DraftKings, and Caesars as sportsbooks for our official releases and record keeping purposes. While most of the lines we release will likely be available on other sportsbooks (ESPN Bet, BetMGM, Bet365, international books, exchanges, etc.), they will not primarily be used for record keeping purposes. However, we are always monitoring market conditions and this will be subject to change if we believe there is a need to do so.
Do you offer a betting or line comparison tool? Why not? No. It’s not something we think we can do well at this time. We do want to make it clear that a tool is only as good as the projections and analysis that go into it. We have a team that is both creating projections and sourcing bets. If we think it’s a good bet, we’re sharing it, and often bets that show up as good in a projection may not be for various reasons. In fact, more often than not, we would NOT recommend playing a bet that does show up as a “play” based on a projection system. However, we understand there is value in comparing projections to current lines, and particularly in moving quickly as information is changing in the NBA, we just want subscribers to be very careful about blindly betting edges they see in a tool.
Where can I find full Player Stat Detail Projections? FULL PROJECTIONS HERE. Note: Your NBA Player Props Subscription comes with access to our NBA Full Stat projections. There is also a separate subscription for people who only want our detail projections, not picks. You can find more on that here. The detail projections are released every day at 5:00 PM ET or 30 minutes before tip of the first game, whichever comes earlier.
Why don’t you release Player Stat Projections earlier? Professional gamblers, odds and data services, other fantasy websites, and many serious fantasy basketball players subscribe to our service. We believe it’s counterproductive to release the underlying projections to such a group before we have the chance to review the opening markets and make our selections, which we will relay to subscribers. There will still be plenty of bets available before tipoff based on news, injuries, starting lineup changes, etc., we believe this strikes a fair balance for all parties’ interests.
Why are you offering this service, aren’t you a fantasy sports content provider? We understand sports betting is growing in popularity and not everyone has the time for or interest in DFS. We believe in our ability to offer strong player projections due to our expertise in making them for DFS and we’ve tested our process in the markets over the past four years, with strong results. In other words, we think we can offer a service where the quality stands up to our fantasy sports customers’ expectations. Additionally, this product will enable us to justify the cost of a props team that we hope to utilize across our content offerings in the future.
DISCLAIMERS
Your lines may differ from what we have available. We look at all major national sportsbooks and their hundreds of prop offerings. If you live in a state with limited access to sportsbooks, your offerings may differ from the lines we are recommending.
Lines move very fast. Our information moves markets. In order to get the best lines available, you’ll need to react quickly when we post new information. While frustrating, this is strong evidence that we have an edge. We urge extreme caution following any betting analyst or service that is NOT moving markets with their selections.
Sometimes we’ll win, and sometimes we’ll lose. There are no guarantees about our success. This is not financial advice.
This market is dynamic. There is more competition every year amongst smart bettors trying to find good betting opportunities. Past results are not guaranteed.
If you do win, your betting account could get limited. Sportsbooks very commonly limit the amount of money they are willing to take from bettors who have a proven ability to win.
You can cancel at any time. This is a one-week recurring subscription. If you’re unhappy with the product, you can cancel at any time. If you’re really unhappy and feel like you did not get good value on your purchase, we’ll provide you a full refund for your most recent billing cycle.
PRODUCT CHANGES/IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE 2025-26 NBA SEASON
Note: We recently communicated with subscribers product changes for the 2025-26 season. We’ve included them here so potential new subscribers can get a sense of how we are approaching the product this season.
We identified three main areas we felt needed improvement in the product.
- Communication around projection updates, timeliness on updates, and timestamps accuracy for full stat projections
- Discord interactions/communications
- Increased emphasis on Unofficial bets
Communication around projection updates, timeliness on updates, and timestamps accuracy for full stat projections
- We have improved the tables on site and the timestamps will no longer have any lag. They will represent the time the page was refreshed instantly.
- The discord channel #nba-update-alerts will continue pushing updates when projections have been pushed.
- We will no longer spend time sourcing bets post projections reveal.
- We will continue to monitor new lines on market and adjust projections where necessary, but instead of spending time trying to source and prep official bets we will dedicate that time to informing customers of the news and of projections confidence/fragility. The goal is to try and help customers be able to move on news and give extra context around projections pushes. We will utilize a newly created nba-info channel to drop news and notes. Subs with either the full-stat projections sub or the NBA-props sub will have access to this new channel.
- Scenario projections. We have created the ability to see our if/then scenarios for injuries in advance of the news breaking. These projections will display in the full-stat projections table with the ability to select the scenarios and get the projections you’d like in your data set. You can select one scenario per team at a time, but you can save different CSV’s with different sets to be ready in advance of news breaking.
- Projection release times will be done dynamically. While the base assumption will be 5:00 PM EST or one half hour before the start of the first game each day – whichever comes earlier; the team will have the ability to release projections for select games/teams earlier in the day. This will allow the team on days with solo games and early start times to release just those games at a time, allowing all games to be fully checked before release. This will also allow the team to potentially release games individually at set times during the day in advance of the normal 5:00 PM EST release target. Any projection releases deviating from the base schedule will be communicated in advance via the nba-info channel.
Discord interactions/communications
- One of the main pieces of feedback across customer and staff surveying was that the Discord experience had become both less valuable and enjoyable for most people. It led to both subscribers and ETR staff contributing less than they both previously have and wanted to, with many mentioning it was a significant source of frustration with the quality of the service. We believe that making some changes to the moderation policies can help us bring more discussion that is useful for improving the betting results of subscribers. Accordingly, we are going to take a more active approach in moderation on the discord channel this year. The discord will be a place to discuss basketball, nba betting, and interacting with ETR team members.
- Product questions or concerns can be submitted to [email protected]. We will not be handling customer support questions and comments in the discord channel.
- We will be muting accounts that are unable to follow the guidelines for the Discord channel. If the mute impacts your interest in continuing your subscription, email [email protected] and will provide you with a refund for any remaining time on your subscription.
- For clarity, the types of content not appropriate for discord are: explicit jokes, rude behavior towards others, excessive negativity or off-topic discussion, product/pricing discussion (please do email us feedback when desired). We recognize that there is somewhat of a gray area on exactly what may be allowed, and will do our best to give those generally contributing positively the benefit of the doubt. For example, asking the community a genuine question about the product vs. voicing repeated complaints that have been addressed will be viewed differently. And lightly venting after a bad beat vs. repeatedly being negative or condescending towards others will be viewed differently. We will start enforcing these rules immediately. We understand if they affect your interest in subscribing and will offer a full refund on your subscription if you’d like to cancel before the season starts. If at any time you lose your posting abilities and this affects your desire to remain a subscriber to the service, send us an email and we’ll provide you a refund for the time remaining on your subscription.
Increased emphasis on Unofficial bets
- We aim to have more of a blend of unofficial bets and official bets in the product. Official bets will be considered “widely available” bets. They will be available on FanDuel or on PropBuilder and oftentimes have availability on DraftKings or Caesars as well.
- Unofficial bets will be a mix of bets that include:
- Limited availability, only one of FanDuel or Builder
- A team member lean that didn’t meet our official threshold via voting by the team, or projection edge, etc.
- A category that we do not consider for officials, this includes: futures, sides/totals, in-game live betting
- Unofficial bets will come with no warning and will be dropped in an unofficial bets channel. Similar to the etr-nba-bets channel the only posts in this channel will be unofficial bets and record-keeping. Only subs with the nba-props subscription will have access to this channel.
