With legal sports betting expanding across the USA and sportsbooks providing more reliable betting options, as well as there being an increased emphasis on expanding available player props markets, we’ve decided to upgrade our prop betting coverage this season.
We have assembled a team of skilled fantasy players and projections-oriented news grinders to source as many good bets as we possibly can throughout the NBA season. Due to the amount of time and resources we will put into our props package, our NBA props package will be $69.99/week during the NBA season.
Why We Think It’s Possible To Beat The Books
If you’re an ETR subscriber, you know how much time and effort our staff puts into our fantasy projections. Our analytics team is led by longtime DFS pros Mike Leone and Drew Dinkmeyer, who in addition to creating and managing projection systems for years, successfully deploy our system’s outputs in the highest-stakes fantasy contests in the world.
But projections are just a starting point. The NBA is a dynamic market that requires more than just following a quantitative projection system to win. To address this, Drew Dinkmeyer, who previously sourced bets mostly on his own, will be leading a small team of analysts to source prop bets we think have incorrect lines.
Overall, we’re confident in our combination of quantitative (our projection system) and qualitative (knowledge of betting markets, access to reliable news and information) analysis, particularly as we dedicate more resources to this effort. With that said, we cannot guarantee these results will continue, and we can guarantee that betting markets will continue to get more difficult.
ETR’s Published Player Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Record: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL In-Season Record: 55-34, +$1,907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Record: 111-82, +$1,817
2021 NFL In-Season Record: 216-118: +$8,572; 22.1% ROI
2021-22 NBA In-Season Record: 751-495: +$20,348; 14.0% ROI
2022-23 NFL In-Season Record: 308-222, +$5,860; 9.5% ROI
2022-23 NBA In-Season Record: 700-455, +$18,770; 13.9% ROI
2023-24 NFL In-Season Record: 253-225, +$267; 0.48% ROI
2023-24 NBA In-Season Record: 683-432, +$19,473; 14.73% ROI
2024-25 NFL In-Season Record: 228-158, +$5,969; 14.09% ROI
2024-25 NBA In-Season Record: 549-386, +$11,067; 10.13% ROI
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop.
ETR Props Offering
Our In-Season props content is pretty straightforward. You subscribe to our NBA Props Package, our props team sources as many prop bets as we can find and relays them to you via ETR’s Premium Discord channel and a private Telegram channel.
You will also receive access to an ETR NBA Props Discord channel which we expect will be a great place to discuss props with other enthusiasts.
Overall, we aim to make this product a combination of a learning resource, community, and actionable information.
IMPORTANT: Accessing our Discord Server and Telegram will be essential to maximizing your experience with our props package. If you do not want to use the Discord and Telegram apps on your phone to receive push notifications, we recommend keeping expectations very low about available lines. Lines will move quickly and you will need to be ready to act quickly in order to get the same or similar lines.
FAQ:
What is Telegram? Telegram is a simple chat service. You may download it for desktop or mobile here: https://telegram.org/.
How many props will I get per month? We are hoping to release at least 100 props per month. We were able to source about 1100-1300 props per year over each of the last three NBA seasons, but we aren’t certain we can sustain that type of volume. Keep in mind that not all props we find could be on a book you have access to in your state. We can not guarantee a certain number of props each week as we want to ensure quality over quantity.
What sports does this cover? NBA only.
What sportsbooks do you release props for? Regulated sportsbooks within the USA. Though these lines may also be available elsewhere, we will not be releasing plays. We use Fanduel, Draftkings, and Caesars as Sportsbooks for our official releases and record keeping purposes. While most of the lines we release will likely be available on other Sportsbooks (ESPN Bet, BetMGM, Bet365, etc.), they will not be used for our release or record keeping purposes. However, we are always monitoring market conditions and this will be subject to change if we believe there is a need to do so.
Do you offer a betting or line comparison tool? Why not? No. It’s not something we think we can do well at this time, and we also strongly question the value of many of these products. A tool is only as good as the projections and analysis that go into it. We have a team that is both creating projections and sourcing bets. If we think it’s a good bet, we’re sharing it, and often bets that show up as good in a projection may not be for various reasons. In fact, more often than not, we would NOT recommend playing a bet that does show up as a “play” based on a projection system.
Where can I find full Player Stat Detail Projections? There is a separate subscription for people who only want our detail projections, not picks. You can find more on that here. The detail projections are released every day at 5:00 PM ET.
Why don’t you release Player Stat Projections earlier? Professional gamblers, odds and data services, other fantasy websites, and many serious fantasy basketball players subscribe to our service. We believe it’s counterproductive to release the underlying projections to such a group before we have the chance to review the opening markets and make our selections, which we will relay to subscribers. There will still be plenty of bets available before tipoff based on news, injuries, starting lineup changes, etc., we believe this strikes a fair balance for all parties’ interests.
Why are you offering this service, aren’t you a fantasy sports content provider? We understand sports betting is growing in popularity and not everyone has the time for or interest in DFS. We believe in our ability to offer strong player projections due to our expertise in making them for DFS and we’ve tested our process in the markets over the past two years, with strong results. In other words, we think we can offer a service where the quality stands up to our fantasy sports customers’ expectations. Additionally, this product will enable us to justify the cost of a props team that we hope to utilize across our content offerings in the future.
DISCLAIMERS
Your lines may differ from what we have available. We look at all major national sportsbooks and their hundreds of prop offerings. If you live in a state with limited access to sportsbooks, your offerings may differ from the lines we are recommending.
Lines move very fast. Our information moves markets. In order to get the best lines available, you’ll need to react quickly when we post new information. While frustrating, this is strong evidence that we have an edge. We urge extreme caution following any betting analyst or service that is NOT moving markets with their selections.
Sometimes we’ll win, and sometimes we’ll lose. There are no guarantees about our success. This is not financial advice.
This market is dynamic. There is more competition every year amongst smart bettors trying to find good betting opportunities. Past results are not guaranteed.
If you do win, your betting account could get limited. Sportsbooks very commonly limit the amount of money they are willing to take from bettors who have a proven ability to win.
You can cancel at any time. This is a one-week recurring subscription. If you’re unhappy with the product, you can cancel at any time. If you’re really unhappy and feel like you did not get good value on your purchase, we’ll provide you a full refund for your most recent billing cycle.
