DFS NBA Top Plays: January 17

Here are the teams on the second night of a back-to-back: Phoenix Suns, Utah Jazz

Here are the teams on the front end of a back-to-back: N/A

The most important injuries to watch out for:

Norman Powell (Q, illness) – With the return of CJ McCollum and Norm Powell projected in, most of the Blazers players look over priced. If Powell sits though, there could be some room for Nassir Little and Jusuf Nurkic to remain relevant.

Bam Adebayo (Q, right thumb) – The Heat started floating Monday as the return date for Adebayo last week so we’re assuming he’ll be able to return tonight. How his return impacts the rotation is a very big question mark as Omer Yurtseven’s strong play has made a case for a bigger role, but PJ Tucker is also integral and the Heat might struggle to find spacing if they try to play all these guys. Yurtseven’s presence should limit the ceiling on Adebayo’s minutes after a long absence but it’s possible everyone gets squeezed here.

Gary Trent Jr.  (Q, Left Ankle) – Trent has been listed Questionable the last three games and has been unable to play. If he returns we’d expect heavy minutes right off the bat. If he’s unable to play Chris Boucher started the 2H last time out against a bigger Bucks lineup and played 20 of the 24 2H minutes. It was a game without Scottie Barnes as well but there is the potential for heavy minutes for Boucher if Trent is unable to go. Svi Mykhailiuk played just 7.5 minutes without Trent and Barnes and appears to have fallen out of favor.

Carmelo Anthony (Q, back) – If Melo is unable to go we could see the Lakers lean into some of their bigger lineups against Rudy Gobert and the Jazz. It would be interesting to see if they chose to start Dwight Howard for the matchup (we’re not currently expecting it).

Game-by-Game Notes:

MIL@ATL (MIL -5, O/U 231.5)

• This game is only available on FanDuel.
• With Jrue Holiday still out, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and Bobby Portis remain high upside targets. Portis draws a slightly softer matchup without Clint Capela and carries the best price tag of the bunch. He’s a cash game target.
• Giannis Antetokounmpo has arguably the highest ceiling on the slate but comes with a price tag that is representative. Antetokounmpo and Middleton are secondary cash game targets that are viable in all formats. We’d implement a max 2 of Portis-Middleton-Antetokounmpo in tournament lineups.
• Atlanta will be without Clint Capela and Bogdan Bogdanovic. The latter leads to some wing depth issues that the Hawks tried to address last game by more minutes from Delon Wright and Lou Williams. Wright is cheap enough to earn consideration in tournaments but would really need the minutes to stay into the mid-20s to offer upside worthy.
• Atlanta’s unwillingness to play heavy true C minutes in the absence of Capela has allowed a higher minutes ceiling for Danilo Gallinari as well. Kevin Huerter and DeAndre Hunter also benefit from the lack of wing depth and carry heavier minutes ceilings. Hunter has a cheaper tag but Huerter the higher ceiling.
• IF the Hawks do lean into their centers more Onyeka Okongwu figures to be the option. We haven’t seen the big minutes of late but the ceiling is there for tournaments.

POR@ORL (POR -2, O/U 218.5)

• The expected return of CJ McCollum makes most of the recent values for the Trail Blazers far less compelling. We’re expecting some potential minutes limitations on McCollum after the long layoff which curtails his upside even though he comes at a reasonable price tag for life without Damian Lillard.
• Norman Powell is also questionable here. If Powell sits, there is a path to upside in usage from Jusuf Nurkic, Anfernee Simons, and Nassir Little, but they’re all priced up for the recent absences. Even in a great matchup against the Magic it’s hard to get excited about utilizing Blazers. We’d consider a Max 1 in tournaments.
• The return of Jalen Suggs hurts the upside for Cole Anthony but the price tag has come down accordingly. In the mid-$7,000s Anthony is an interesting tournament target against a weak Portland defense.
• Minutes limitations keep the projections in check for Jalen Suggs and Mo Bamba but if the minutes limits were removed their price tags (Suggs- DK, Bamba – both) would have some tournament appeal.
• Franz Wagner remains affordable and carries tournament upside but has lost some of his play-making responsibilities in the second unit with the return of Jalen Suggs.

TOR@MIA (MIA -3, O/U 207.5) 

• This game has the lowest total on the slate. Both teams have had player absences of late inflate the price tag of remaining starters and now may get some pieces back tonight. This is a very difficult game environment to find upside. We’d consider a Max 1 of either team in tournaments IF Gary Trent Jr and Bam Adebayo return tonight.
• Scottie Barnes ($5,600) on FanDuel remains the one uniquely cheap price tag for the Raptors. He’s a secondary cash game target and viable tournament play with that tag on FanDuel.
• There is a lot of input volatility around the Miami minutes projections if Adebayo is able to return. It’s unclear if Omer Yurtseven has earned a much larger role with his play the last few weeks.

PHX@SAS (SAS +4, O/U 227)

• This is the premier game environment on the slate with a tight spread and strong 227 total. Unlike LAL-UTA game which has a similar spread and higher total, this game has way more value available thanks to the absence of Deandre Ayton and Cameron Johnson.
• Javale McGee will represent one of the strongest values on the slate and thus one of the chalkiest options. McGee has averaged 27.83 DK pts/game in 10 previous games without Ayton this season.
• The lack of value on the slate coupled with the expected pace of this game makes Cameron Payne one of the top values at PG. Payne’s upside is limited so if ownership gets aggressive he’s an interesting fade, but the slate lacks value on the whole and specifically at the guard slot.
• Mikal Bridges is cheap on FanDuel ($4,500) and represents our top option at SF and PF. Bridges comes with a really strong minutes floor and the cheap price tag makes him a cash game building block.
• Chris Paul and Devin Booker grade out as fine targets given the nature of the guards on this slate. Neither play is an elite play but they rank near the top given the game environment and competition. We’d consider a Max 1 of the two stars in tournaments.
• Dejounte Murray has given the Suns fits in two games this year, averaging 54.5 DraftKings points per game in the prior two contests. The hefty price tag will keep ownership down but the upside (especially opposite all the Suns value) makes a lot of sense in tournaments.
• Keldon Johnson and Jakob Poeltl project as the best Spurs values to pair opposite the Suns options. Both should benefit from the absence of Ayton’s interior presence. For GPP players we’d consider a Max 1 of the two interior options and Poeltl would especially be useful in McGee-fade lineups.

OKC@DAL (DAL -11.5, O/U 210)

• The Thunder have a sub-100 implied total. It’s a difficult spot for upside but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, and Lu Dort have all shown upside moments during the season. They are strictly MME plays.
• Luka Doncic should remain one of the more popular targets given the price tag in the mid-10,000s. Kristaps Porzingis should carry some ownership on DraftKings where the price is more reasonable and the slate is smaller. We’d implement a Max 1 of the two Dallas stars unless using a Thunder player in a bring-back.
• Maxi Kleber and Dorian Finney-Smith project as viable salary relief plays given the nature of the slate and their PF eligibility. Both are fine plays in all formats but we’d consider a Max 1 in tournaments given they compete for the same statistics and largely similar playing time.

UTA@LAL (LAL +4.5, O/U 230.5) 

• The Jazz have yet to file an injury report on the second night of a back-to-back so it’s possible we see someone rest and open up more value. Mike Conley is the most likely candidate, which would improve the projections for Jordan Clarkson, Joe Ingles, and Donovan Mitchell.
• Even with Conley projected in, Donovan Mitchell looks like a strong target on both sites, especially on FanDuel where the price tag is down. The same can be said for Rudy Gobert though spending up at center looks like a contrarian approach on this slate.
• Russell Westbrook’s price tag has dipped to a playable level on FanDuel ($8,100) but he remains a touch pricey on DraftKings ($9,400).
• The secondary Lakers players are difficult to invest in but the price tags on Talen Horton-Tucker and Malik Monk make them viable secondary targets in tournaments. We’d always consider a Max 1 of non-LeBron Lakers.
• There is a small chance the Lakers choose to matchup with Rudy Gobert by starting with Dwight Howard. Howard is really cheap on both sites and would emerge as an emergency pivot as a center value if starting.

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