There was smoke that Amari Cooper would not be a Dallas Cowboy in 2022, and smoke turned into fire when the Browns made their move to acquire the star wideout — who is still just 27 years old — on Saturday. The fantasy implications are evident as Cooper steps into the WR1 role in Cleveland and simultaneously turns the Cowboys’ receiving corps into a question mark beyond CeeDee Lamb (Michael Gallup and Cedrick Wilson are both free agents). Let’s take a look at how ETR’s projections changed as a result of this trade.
AMARI COOPER
Old projection: 78.6 catches on 120.9 targets for 1,013.8 yards and 7.1 touchdowns. WR21 on Underdog.
New projection: 66.2 catches on 104.2 targets for 844.9 yards and 5.4 touchdowns. WR32 on Underdog.
- While Cooper no longer has to compete with Lamb and potentially Gallup (if he re-signs) for targets, he moves from one of the highest-volume passing attacks in the league to an offense that revolves around the ground game. In fact, we have the Cowboys projected for the second-most pass attempts per game in 2022. The Browns rank 11th lowest. This is all to say that despite a small bump in target share, Cooper’s projected volume takes a dive now that he’s in Cleveland. The move from Dak Prescott to Baker Mayfield does him no favors either, as his yards per target dropped from 8.4 in Dallas to 8.1 in his new destination.
- With that being said, there is some room for Cooper’s target share to climb, especially if the Browns trade or cut Jarvis Landry. Adam Schefter reported that Landry is free to seek a trade now that the Browns have Cooper in town. Finding a trade partner with his cap hit ($16.4 million) could prove difficult, in which case he’d likely have to take a pay cut or get released. Of course, Cleveland could add another wide receiver in free agency or the draft if they don’t plan on having Landry on the team in 2022.
On the same day they agreed to trade for WR Amari Cooper, the Browns also have granted permission to veteran WR Jarvis Landry to see a trade, per sources.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 12, 2022
JARVIS LANDRY
Old projection: 66.7 catches on 106.2 targets for 787.4 yards and 4.0 touchdowns. WR51 on Underdog.
New projection: 62.2 catches on 99.0 targets for 734.0 yards and 3.7 touchdowns. WR55 on Underdog.
- Cooper’s arrival mostly impacted Donovan Peoples-Jones, Rashard Higgins, and Anthony Schwartz in our projections, so Landry didn’t take too large of a hit. If he’s on the Browns, he’ll still be on the field in 2-WR sets and should command a similar role as when he was sharing looks with Odell Beckham.
- However, the most likely scenario is the Browns deal Landry sometime during the offseason. As mentioned above, they have given him permission to seek a trade, and his cap hit ($16.4 million) makes him a cut candidate if Cleveland doesn’t find a trade partner. A projection might not be the best way to gauge his value right now since we don’t know where he’ll be playing, but he’d likely operate in a similar WR2 or WR3 role wherever he ends up.
OTHER BROWNS PLAYERS
- Most other Browns pass catchers ceded a percentage point or two of target share with Cooper’s arrival, but Landry remains the elephant in the room since he seems unlikely to remain on the team. It’s worth monitoring what the Browns do to replace him when he’s inevitably off the roster — do they add another capable receiver or roll into 2022 with Peoples-Jones as their WR2?
- Despite the addition of Cooper, we still have the Browns as one of the most ground-oriented teams in the league. They’ve had talented wide receivers before (read: Odell) and remained committed to the run. We didn’t make Cleveland more pass-heavy just because they added Cooper.
COWBOYS’ OFFENSE
- Not a lot changed with the Cowboys’ receivers, in part because a potential Cooper departure was already baked in based on the rumors that he would be moved. Gallup was bumped a little now that Cooper is for sure gone, but we didn’t go too crazy increasing his volume with unrestricted free agency looming. The projections for Cowboys wideouts are certainly subject to change in the coming months based on how the front office decides to play things, but we mostly avoided toggling things too much since Cooper was expected to leave.
