GM Trent Baalke
HC Doug Pederson
OC Press Taylor
DC Mike Caldwell
Projected Starting Lineup
QB Trevor Lawrence
RB Travis Etienne
WR1 Christian Kirk
WR2 Marvin Jones
WR3 Zay Jones
TE Evan Engram
LT Cam Robinson
LG Ben Bartch
C Tyler Shatley
RG Brandon Scherff
RT Jawaan Taylor
Passing Game Overview
Trevor Lawrence’s rookie year fell short of expectations commensurate with his college hype, finishing 26th among starting quarterbacks in Expected Points Added and concerningly struggling to the tune of a sub-70 PFF grade and 83 passer rating on clean-pocket plays, which have shown to be predictive year to year. Yet Lawrence’s stats and grades can’t fully contextualize the backbreaking design of since-fired Urban Meyer’s offense, which involved bumbling route combinations and made life exceedingly difficult on Jacksonville’s first-year signal-caller. This year’s Jags poured monetary investments into their pass-catcher corps, replaced incompetent Meyer with proven QB tutor Doug Pederson, and drew 2022’s softest pass-defense schedule (Football Outsiders). Still buying him as an Andrew Luck-level talent and all but giving him a rookie-year pass, I’ve bet on Lawrence multiple times to win MVP at 80-to-1 odds.
Christian Kirk disrupted the NFL’s wide receiver market by landing a four-year, $72 million deal from Jacksonville in free agency. Kirk never cleared 1,000 yards in any of his first four NFL seasons but did average career highs in yards per route run (2.0) and yards per target (9.5) in 2021. Per Sports Info Solutions, Kirk’s yards-per-target average ranked No. 7 in the NFL among players who drew at least 100 targets. Only 25 years old, Kirk’s arrow is still pointing up. Capable of playing both slot and outside, Kirk will be given every opportunity to emerge as Lawrence’s go-to guy in his first season with Jacksonville.
Marvin Jones enters his age-32 campaign exhibiting clear signs of slowdown, having in 2021 averaged a minuscule 1.4 yards per route run (SIS) and 6.9 yards per target, Jones’ lowest mark since his rookie year in 2012. Ideally, the Jags would have one of their younger receivers emerge as a starter to bump Jones down the depth chart. Jones should warrant little fantasy interest, even at the end of season-long drafts.
Zay Jones, Laviska Shenault, and Laquon Treadwell will battle for No. 3 receiver duties in camp. Jones bolted Las Vegas for Jacksonville via a three-year, $24 million deal even after Jones failed to reach 700 yards in each of his initial five NFL campaigns. Jones rated poorly in 2021 yards per route run (1.5) and has never so much as reached 12 yards per reception in an individual year. Athletic but raw, Shenault is the type of talent that gives coaches fits. His unrefined routes were a disastrous fit in Meyer’s offense. A first-round pick in 2016, Treadwell’s career has been as pedestrian as his ruinous Combine measurables.
Evan Engram and Dan Arnold are Jacksonville’s top two pass-catching tight ends with Engram in front after the Jags signed him to a one-year, $9 million deal with nearly all of it guaranteed. Engram enters his age-28 campaign as an enigmatic career underachiever who pathetically averaged 1.0 yards per route run in 2021 but obviously needed a scenery change away from the Giants. Urban Meyer’s Jaguars traded for Arnold last September, only for Arnold to miss 2021’s final six games with an MCL sprain. I’m monitoring — not necessarily drafting — both because I believe in Lawrence’s breakthrough chances.
Running Game Overview
Travis Etienne missed his entire rookie year with a Lisfranc fracture suffered in Jacksonville’s second preseason game after the Jags made him 2021’s 25th overall pick. Etienne’s injury occurred long enough ago that he was medically cleared by spring OTAs, while his 2022 competition for touches appears unimposing, especially after James Robinson tore his Achilles last Dec. 26. A prolific college pass-catching back who played alongside Lawrence at Clemson, Etienne offers a high enough PPR ceiling that I’m willing to rank him above Ezekiel Elliott, Cam Akers, David Montgomery, and Miles Sanders.
Snoop Conner is a legitimate deep sleeper considering Robinson’s Achilles recovery and the popular notion that Etienne may profile better as a niche receiving back than an offensive workhorse. Achilles tears tend to be career-ending injuries for running backs, while Robinson is a previous-staff holdover, and Conner was selected by the new Doug Pederson regime. A fifth-round pick out of Ole Miss, Conner (5’10″/222) is bellcow built and teased pass-catching acumen with 32 receptions in three college years.
2022 Win Total
As of July 5, Jacksonville’s Win Total at DraftKings Sportsbook was 7.5. No team is likelier to benefit from its coaching change than the Jags, while Sharp Football pegged Jacksonville’s schedule as this year’s 12th softest. Albeit on across-the-board overpays, the Jaguars went all-in on free agency: WR Christian Kirk (four years, $72M), OG Brandon Scherff (three years, $49.5M), LB Foye Oluokun (three years, $45M), CB Darious Williams (three years, $30 million), DT Foley Fatukasi (three years, $30M), TE Evan Engram (one year, $9M), and WR Zay Jones (three years, $24M). More so betting on a sophomore leap from Lawrence, I’m taking overs on the Jags and a low-risk shot on Doug Pederson to win Coach of the Year.
