Value Report: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Even with the Saturday finish, I’m still coming off the high from last week’s tremendous golf tournament. Name values aside, having golfers fight for career-defining opportunities on a golf course where par is a good score is something I’ll forever tune in for. We discussed it in Monday’s GPP Data Review, but it was a very strong week from a GPP return standpoint, and the Value Report was a huge reason why.

Okay, this withdrawal thing is getting out of hand. We are now up to three weeks in a row that it’s hit us, and finally one came after lock. It was the highest-owned option too, and one that I really expected to play super well, so it was frustrating to have Gary Woodland do us like that. So then, out of the seven golfers that teed it up, three missed the cut while four made the weekend. Staying on the negative trio, Charles Reiter actually flashed that massive off-the-tee game enough for me to keep enough interest for the next time. Kevin Roy and Taylor Montgomery fell extremely flat, and although Frankie Capan made the cut again, his popularity is rising. 7% absolutely means he’s going to be one of the trendier KFT selections in these weaker events if his form continues.

Now for the positives, Jake Knapp showed once again that when you put him on a course that fits his game, his ceiling is still there. He posted a top-30 finish in DraftKings scoring, which is strong for $6,700, and Ricky Castillo did the exact same for $100 less. That one felt very strong after diving into the KFT stats to understand where a true ball striker like him would play very well at. He didn’t outscore his finishing position like Aldrich Potgieter, but we will take that return every time. The true best play though was the big-hitting South African, who finished eighth in DK scoring at 1.24% ownership. As low owned as he was, it was clearly evident in the numbers that the course fit was so much better than his opening two events, and to get rewarded in that spot was so pure. Weak fields with strong course fits are some of my favorites we get every year.

From that battle of an event, we flip to more of a pillow fight with the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am being an 80-golfer field with no cut. The stakes aren’t nearly as high despite the much larger purse, but with no football this week, DraftKings has upped the ante to the biggest GPPs we’ve had yet in 2025. Scottie Scheffler is making his first start of 2025 but is priced nearly as high as the peaks of last season in signature events, and just two golfers are with him north of $10,000. That makes for a week that dumpster-diving may not be too highly owned, and with the risk mitigated of missing the cut, it offers up awesome leverage getting unique with the values!

Rasmus Hojgaard, $7,500 – The long-awaited first start as a PGA Tour rookie has finally arrived for Rasmus Hojgaard after earning the second spot in the Race to Dubai Rankings in 2024 to solidify his card. Twin brother to Nicolai, Rasmus actually seems to have the higher ceiling despite taking an extra year to get stateside. While wielding similar power off the tee to Nicolai, Rasmus has an extra gear in his approach game that should fit very well to PGA Tour tracks. Rasmus has not lost strokes off the tee since mid-July and in that time frame has racked up four top-five finishes, including a win at the Irish Open where he out-dueled Rory. Similar to Niklas Norgaard Moller last week, DraftKings didn’t shy away from pricing him up, so hopefully the price tag is enough to keep him a true contrarian option in his debut.